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Old 11-11-2006, 11:27 AM
bestbluff bestbluff is offline
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 5
Default Re: (60) I know, never fold KK preflop... but...

This reply is to the first hand.

Lets assume that if you go all in you will get two callers. They have both invested a very high proportion of their stacks so that assumption should be reasonable.

The effective pot will therefore contain 3405 and you need to pay another 1030 which gives you potodds 1-3.3

Two likely situations:

1. One of the players have AA and the other player's hand range is JJ+,AKs, AK. This gives you a 15.3% winning chance.

2. Both players have the following handrange: JJ+(but NOT AA), AKs, AK. This gives you 59.5% winning chance.

So our expected winning chance become:
x*15.3%+y*59.5%
Where x and y is the likelyhood of event 1 and 2, respectively.

In order to call your winning chance should be more than 23.2% (better than your potodds):

0.153x+0.595y>0.232
Or
0.153x+0.595*(1-x)>0.232 since x+y=100%

So, if x<82.2% you make a positive chip EV. Lets take your edge into account as well, and therefore only make the call if we think there is less than 70% chance that one of your opponents have AA.
I would push and expect to be out after this hand.

I am new at this forum and my English is not very good. I apologize if I have done something wrong according to the posting rules
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