outdoing tommy, andy fox, and maybe even TxRedMan!

[DpR]

Alot of info in this thread already. I am one of the few on this board that does think that variance is an issue when making poker decisions - even beyond the strict bankroll consideration (which should be obvious, yet somehow get consistently ignored/dismissed on this board).

HOWEVER, I think this hand specifically does not fit into the category that is should be folded due to variance, and I do think it is a big EV mistake (relatively). If Mike's read is so good, as he himself likes to profess his live reads are, then play the hand like it is 22 postflop. This is not a high variance scenario. In fact, given the read, it is a rather good situation since there is an opportunity to collect a high return with very little variance.

That is what I find odd about the situation as described. IT is a particularly low variance situation. Now, if the read was worse (i.e. he could also easily have AK or 1010) then the varaiance of the situation is greatly increased, becaue Mike's post flop actions will be less clear and he will more often put in money when behind. However, the EV of the situation also is greatly increased, thus a fold would also be a big mistake in that case.

So, it is great to finally see some acknoledgement that variance should be a concern, since ever agrees with me all the times I have mentioned it. But I think it is greatly misapplied in this hand (and in fact applied exactly opposite how it should be IMO).

I will however conceed that if Mike's read is in fact dead on, and he knows this, yet will still call down when his JJ is an overpair, then he probably made the right decision for his own game. It just doesnt translate well to a message board because it would defy logic. I do think many if not all of us have situation where we just can't amke the right play even when we know what it is.