Week 1 CFB Notions

[ML4L]

It's Friday, and I'd rather discuss football than work... So, I figure I'll go ahead and share some early leans that I have for Week 1, hoping that people will come out of the woodwork with considerations that I haven't thought of... I'll save the logic until we get closer to the start of the season.

Fla. Int'l +10.5 at Mid. Ten. St. (3 unit)
Toledo +7.5 at Iowa St. (3 unit)
Miss St. +7 vs South Carolina (2 unit)
Pitt -3.5 vs UVA (2 unit)
Nebraska -20 vs La. Tech (2 unit)
Wisconsin -10 neutral Bowling Green (2 unit)
Clemson -34 vs Fla. Atlantic (1 unit)

And, here are a few games that I will play if I get a line-move in the right direction...

UTEP +1 at SDSU (1 unit)
Rice +13 vs Houston (1 unit)
Auburn -15 vs Wash. St. (1 unit)
San Jose St. +18 at Washington (1 unit)
Oregon -11.5 vs Stanford (1 unit)
Texas -41 vs N. Texas (1 unit)

I also expect that I will like the following when they get posted:

Cal/Tenn under
Miami/FSU under
Nebraska/La. Tech under
Florida/So. Miss under
Oregon/Stanford over

I haven't heard a whole lot of talk about most of the games that I am eyeing, which is kinda why I am posting them. It's interesting, because the plays that most people (squares?) seem to be excited about are Wisconsin, N'Western, Indiana, Houston, and Utah. I agree with Wisconsin, disagree with Houston, but I think the lines on the other three are right on...

Anyway, all thoughts on these (or other) games are welcome.

ML4L

[pirateboy]

You know I'm noob to sports betting, but I do know a lot about college football, as its my #1 obsession.

I don't dislike any of your bets.

The ones I like and will probably make myself:

UTEP +1
San Jose State +18
Oregon -11.5
Pitt -3.5

I think I will take South Carolina, Washington State, and Iowa State.

Some other games I'm eyeing, what do you think?

LSU -30.5 v. Louis. Laf.
Hawaii +16 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt +25.5 @ Michigan
N. Illinois +18 @ Ohio State
TCU -8.5 @ Baylor
Arizona -7 v. BYU

[ML4L]

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I don't dislike any of your bets.

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I think I will take South Carolina and Iowa State.

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Um, clearly, you can't be too crazy about my Miss. St. and Toledo picks... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

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Some other games I'm eyeing, what do you think?

LSU -30.5 v. Louis. Laf.
Hawaii +16 @ Alabama
Vanderbilt +25.5 @ Michigan
N. Illinois +18 @ Ohio State
TCU -8.5 @ Baylor
Arizona -7 v. BYU

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I generally would rather lay the points than take them when it comes to Sun Belt teams out of conference, but LSU has too many question marks for me, particularly on the offensive and defensive lines. If I'm going to lay a ton of points, I like to be certain that there will be complete dominance up front. Even though La. Lafayette will be overmatched, I don't see them being overmatched by much more than 4 TDs, given their relatively decent talent at the skill positions.

I like Hawaii this year, but they're a team that I won't play on away from home. I might be giving up value on occasion, but, whatever... FWIW, I like Alabama this year, but they are weak in the secondary, so I actually think this is a pretty good match-up for Hawaii.

Vandy would be my lean in the Vandy/Mich game; I was actually hoping to play Michigan before the line posted, but 25.5 is too many.

I loved NIU last year, but I can't help but wonder if Wolfe will be as good without his O-line. So, I probably won't play on or against them the first few games until I get a feel for how the new line will perform.

I'd lean toward taking the points with Baylor. TCU's D might be a smidge better this year, but their offense is probably going to fall off a little bit, and Baylor is not as bad as people think, particularly on D. Now that I think about it, I had meant to have this game as one of the unders that I am looking at...

I would lean to Arizona, but I am not comfortable with the hype about their defense until I see it in action. Everyone ran on them last year, and I hate teams that can't stop the run.

Care to share your thoughts on So. Car. and Iowa St.? Iowa St. was one of my sleepers last year, and I cashed on them a few times. But, their O-line worries me this year, as does their defense. I think they've gotten over-hyped, and Toledo is the best team in the MAC, IMO. Line looks like it should be -3 or -3.5 to me... I like Spurrier, but aside from the skill positions, his talent is no better than Miss. St.'s. I think that they overachieved last year and are going to fall back to earth this year. Miss St.'s defense was not bad last year and should be even better this year. Laying a TD is a LOT of points on the road; I think the game should be closer to -2.5.

ML4L

[pirateboy]

For South Carolina - Miss State: Last season, the Gamecocks had a pretty horrendous run D (174 yards/game), which was also the only bright spot on MSU's offense last year (138 rush yards/gm). The offensive line for the Dogs STUNK, so it seems Norwood was the main and maybe SOLE reason for an average running game. Norwoord is gone, and while Thornton averaged 4.8 yards/carry, Dixon may be the starter. MSU's offensive line should improve, but I'm not sure South Carolina's run D will be any WORSE than last year.

South Carolina lost a solid amount in the secondary, but I am nowhere near confident in Mike Henig tossing passes to a Omarr Conner (former QB), Tony Burks (JUCO transfer, 1st year in system), and Will Prosser (catch more than 28 balls, please?). Miss State will be improved on the field, but I think with Spurrier's attack, it could be a little ugly.

Here are a couple questions:

1. So. Caro. led the nation in snaps last year at 605, will the new rules effect them more than others?

2. Do you bet straight up moneylines? If so, why?

[ML4L]

[ QUOTE ]
For South Carolina - Miss State: Last season, the Gamecocks had a pretty horrendous run D (174 yards/game), which was also the only bright spot on MSU's offense last year (138 rush yards/gm). The offensive line for the Dogs STUNK, so it seems Norwood was the main and maybe SOLE reason for an average running game. Norwoord is gone, and while Thornton averaged 4.8 yards/carry, Dixon may be the starter. MSU's offensive line should improve, but I'm not sure South Carolina's run D will be any WORSE than last year.

South Carolina lost a solid amount in the secondary, but I am nowhere near confident in Mike Henig tossing passes to a Omarr Conner (former QB), Tony Burks (JUCO transfer, 1st year in system), and Will Prosser (catch more than 28 balls, please?). Miss State will be improved on the field, but I think with Spurrier's attack, it could be a little ugly.

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Good stuff, but I kinda feel like some of it supports betting MSU more than USC. As you point out, the USC run D was terrible last year. While they can't be much worse, I don't see them being any better, either. I don't remember his name offhand, but USC only has one decent player on the line, and from what I've heard, he's lazy and might not even start. Because MSU should be able to run the ball at least semi-successfully, that will keep the pressure off Henig. MSU only tends to look really bad against teams that can stop the run without "trying" to, because those teams can focus on the pass. With regard to Conner and Burks, Conner is a very good athlete, and I've heard good things about Burks, too. With USC having a mediocre secondary, I really think that MSU can get 17-21 points on the board, despite the inexperience and the mediocre offensive line. So, it really comes down to whether USC will be able to hang 24+ on the MSU defense. Maybe, as they have talent at RB and WR, but I think that their line is so mediocre that the skill players won't be able to get as many 1-on-1 match-ups as they otherwise might. Plus, I'm not sold on USC's QB. So, I don't think they get to 24, and MSU covers/wins.

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Here are a couple questions:

1. So. Caro. led the nation in snaps last year at 605, will the new rules effect them more than others?

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I might not be thinking about this right, but I would actually think that it would affect them LESS than other teams. The main rule that I have been alluding to is that the clock will start on a 1st down when the ball is ready for play, rather than when the ball is snapped. So, teams that don't take a lot of time to run their plays aren't going to lose as much time, relatively, as teams that take 30 seconds per play. That's my gut answer, but I might need to think about it some more...

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2. Do you bet straight up moneylines? If so, why?

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The "correct" answer is that you should find a line converter (I'm sure that craig's site has one) to see where the value is better: pointspread or moneyline. Personally, I go more on "feel," unless the spread/ML are really out of whack, but that might be a leak... My feelings on the spread/ML issue are a little different than the "sharp" opinion on this forum, so I wouldn't feel comfortable peddling my nonsense to others... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

And, incidentally, don't you feel like the research that you did on the USC/MSU game is a heck of a lot more relevant than any "trend" stats that might be out there? Even though we disagree on the interpretation, looking at the details and trying to play out the different facets of the game in your mind is the ONLY way to win, IMHO.

ML4L

[pirateboy]

[quote

And, incidentally, don't you feel like the research that you did on the USC/MSU game is a heck of a lot more relevant than any "trend" stats that might be out there? Even though we disagree on the interpretation, looking at the details and trying to play out the different facets of the game in your mind is the ONLY way to win, IMHO.



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Ya know, I agree. This is way more fun, too. I love to discuss college football, and this is a great outlet. I will definitely stray away from "random" trends. Is there any value in doing what we just did on MSU/SC and then looking at trends as another piece of evidence to evaluate, albeit a small piece of evidence?

As for the actual game, my point about the running game is that Norwood was the huge reason MSU was decent in that facet. With someone less experienced and less talented, SC won't have to give as much attention as they would have if Norwood were there. Mississippi State is going to be a team over the first 3 games that I might avoid betting against or for, because its so questionable how their skill players will grow. I might actually hold off on that game, but I'm not sure yet. If I had to, I'd go with SC right now.

What do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

[ML4L]

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Ya know, I agree. This is way more fun, too. I love to discuss college football, and this is a great outlet. I will definitely stray away from "random" trends. Is there any value in doing what we just did on MSU/SC and then looking at trends as another piece of evidence to evaluate, albeit a small piece of evidence?

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I mean, don't let an amateur like me dissuade you from handicapping however you want. My only real point was that you have to be very careful about how you use trends when you choose to use them... So, now if you see something like "Team A is 8-0 in Thursday night conference road games over the past 20 years," you know to ignore that and focus on more meaningful trends, which do exist...

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What do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

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I think that USC is too much of an unknown for me to dream of playing on or against them early. If I HAD to pick, I would pick USC because I think the talent gap that lead to last year's massacre is still largely there.

ML4L

[CarlSpackler]

[quoteWhat do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

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USC's defense should be a lot better this year, and imo it will be the strength of their team. They have the best LB core in the country and have been tinkering with some 3-4 schemes to go along with their conventional 4-3. Carroll has recently said this is the fastest team he has had at USC. Their secondary, while still the weakest link on their D, supposedly is looking better.

The main question mark with them, is how their offense will perform with Booty at qb and whoever starts at rb. They should have a really good oline, but I've been reading that their offense has been getting blown up vs. the defense when they've been scrimmaging thus far. Apparently Booty hasn't looked very good and Sanchez has looked even worse.

Now this could be because USC's front 7 is nasty and the defense is usually ahead of the offense early on, but it's a risky proposition laying 8.5 when your qb is starting his first game in a hostile environment, and it's not unlikely that he makes 2 or 3 big mistakes during the game.

On the other hand, Arkansas' stud rb McFadden will almost definitlely not play this game due to injury. And apparently their stud frosh qb Mustain is starting to seriously challenge for the starting job. Mustain may eventually be an all-american, but he's a true freshman and if he starts this game, I don't like his chances against USC's attacking defense.

Psychologically, Arkansas will definitely be seeking revenge after their embarassing loss last year. I don't know what the under is, but that might be the best play here.

[pirateboy]

[ QUOTE ]
[quoteWhat do you think of the value of USC -8 @ Arkansas?

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USC's defense should be a lot better this year, and imo it will be the strength of their team. They have the best LB core in the country and have been tinkering with some 3-4 schemes to go along with their conventional 4-3. Carroll has recently said this is the fastest team he has had at USC. Their secondary, while still the weakest link on their D, supposedly is looking better.

The main question mark with them, is how their offense will perform with Booty at qb and whoever starts at rb. They should have a really good oline, but I've been reading that their offense has been getting blown up vs. the defense when they've been scrimmaging thus far. Apparently Booty hasn't looked very good and Sanchez has looked even worse.

Now this could be because USC's front 7 is nasty and the defense is usually ahead of the offense early on, but it's a risky proposition laying 8.5 when your qb is starting his first game in a hostile environment, and it's not unlikely that he makes 2 or 3 big mistakes during the game.

On the other hand, Arkansas' stud rb McFadden will almost definitlely not play this game due to injury. And apparently their stud frosh qb Mustain is starting to seriously challenge for the starting job. Mustain may eventually be an all-american, but he's a true freshman and if he starts this game, I don't like his chances against USC's attacking defense.

Psychologically, Arkansas will definitely be seeking revenge after their embarassing loss last year. I don't know what the under is, but that might be the best play here.

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The McFadden injury is huge for this game, and while Felix Jones is a burner and averaged a ton of yards/carry, he never had the opp. to carry a full load. Against USC, his speed will be matched by the speed of the Trojan D. I'm going to monitor USC's practice reports and if I can find a fan forum, monitor that. If Booty or Sanchez begin to make strong improvement, and Mustain is named starter, I'll pick up USC at -8.

[bills217]

What places have NCAAF lines up, or do most of them by now?