The Freakonomics of Tournaments: A Preview (74s UTG at final table)

[gergery]

I haven't read the whole thread, but I think your play here is clearly EV- tho maybe not by a huge margin depending on table conditions.

You're making the wrong comparison: it isn't play this hand or fold. It's play this hand or play the next one. Since you can't profitably play every hand without your opponents changing strategies.

I'm sure you have lots of tournament success, and I'm sure its despite this play not because of it.

-g

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't read the whole thread, but I think your play here is clearly EV- tho maybe not by a huge margin depending on table conditions.

You're making the wrong comparison: it isn't play this hand or fold. It's play this hand or play the next one. Since you can't profitably play every hand without your opponents changing strategies.

I'm sure you have lots of tournament success, and I'm sure its despite this play not because of it.

-g

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah I think this is a key point. You can't just raise every hand until forever. Even if this somehow is +EV (which if it is, it will be slight), every time you do this you make it harder to get respect for your future raises. I'd save my raises here for a spot where Im not first to act with 74s. You can try to be a bully while at the same time making it look somewhat realistic. Once you get looked up with 74s in EP, you are in danger of getting very little respect for the rest of the event.

The above would all be meaningless if the play on its own was somehow clear +EV, but it's extremely debatable to begin with. It's much better if you can pick spots where the BB isn't so short and the bigger stacks are in the blinds and etc etc. You basically have a fantastic situation where you will have tons of great stealing oppurtunities, and you choose to attempt to steal in perhaps the least favorable situation possible, one which could also ruin your credibility for future steals if you are caught. Your standing is so good that it isn't such a terrible play, but I really don't like it.

[silencee]

To be fair, he's in the big blind next hand, so it's really three hands until the "raising every hand" comments apply.

[Purple]

I think this is a good/ok raise under the present circumstances. But there are some downsides.

Even though you´re in the money and bubble psycology might of less importance, I do think that at least 4 players at the table are waiting for the short stack (stacks) to bust before them, and before they are willing to make a move (gamble).

Lets look at the stacksizes using M´s instead of chips.

MP1 8,2
MP2 16,5
CO 10,8
B 4,9
sb 3,6
bb 3,1
HERO 26,6

I actually think that the precense of those two small stacks is one of the main reasons youre raises get so much respect. You can attac 4 players (having position) when they have the BB (8,2 16,5 10,8 4,9) and they know that if they play a BIG pot against you most of the prizemoney-EV will be going to the short stacks.

OK, when you raise utg with 74s, 4 things will happen (probably alot more of course, but for practical reasons I say 4).

**1. Exactly what happend here. All fold to BB, who pushes and you call (corectlly). You lost the pot and the new setup looks like this (I´m using the same name to the players even though their position changes)

MP1 8,2
MP2 16,5
CO 10,8
B 4,9
sb 3
bb 6,5
HERO 23,5

**2. Same thing, but you won the hand.

MP1 8,2
MP2 16,5
CO 10,8
B 4,9
sb 3
bb 0
HERO 30

**3. If you don´t get called.

MP1 8,2
MP2 16,5
CO 10,8
B 4,9
sb 3,1
bb 2,5
HERO 27,6


**4. Finaly you might get reraised by any of the medium stacks and you fold.

MP1 10,5
MP2 16,5
CO 10,8
B 4,9
sb 3,1
bb 2,5
HERO 25


Now, My thoughts about the new possible outcomes.

**2. Best that can happen. 2 small stack present so you still have plenty of opportunties to bully the medium stacks.

**3. Good, the folding percentage of the medium stacks will increase even more when someone is as low as 2,5 M.

**4. No real harm done, at all.

**1. Now the dynamics has changed and that "might" lower your ability to bully. 4 stacks can now "hurt" you if you loose an all in to them, and MP1 might be more inclined to gamle becuase he lost his "distance" to one of the short stacks.

And you dont have the same good position as you had before the hand. I think that the starting lineup, with the two shortest stack immeditly on youre right is worth alot, I´m not sure who much though. If the other players see this as a struggle for second place, you might be better of keeping the stacks at a status quo, instead of getting a semi-small stack in between you and the desperatly small ones.


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