Sygamel's 2005 NFL Regular Season Picks Log

sygamel · #1 08-30-2005, 03:42 PM

Week 1

Oakland Raiders +7 +106 $47.17 to win $50 (1 unit) Pinnacle 8/30/05

craig · #2 08-30-2005, 03:57 PM

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Week 1

Oakland Raiders +7 +106 $47.17 to win $50 (1 unit) Pinnacle 8/30/05

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You really should have bought the half point and layed -104.

craig

sygamel · #3 08-30-2005, 07:03 PM

Quick note - Please comment if you would like to do so. I have no problem with commenting (and encourage it) but it may make auditing of my picks more difficult for those who haven't followed them from Week 1 if the commenting is not done correctly. Going forward, I will post to make this thread more readable in threaded view.

craig · #4 08-30-2005, 07:17 PM

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Quick note - Please comment if you would like to do so. I have no problem with commenting (and encourage it) but it may make auditing of my picks more difficult for those who haven't followed them from Week 1 if the commenting is not done correctly. Going forward, I will post to make this thread more readable in threaded view.

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Tech said he didn't want a bunch of different threads from one capper. And you can do threaded mode if you want. Why would we care. It doesn't effect us.

craig

p.s. Why didn't you buy to 7.5?

tech · #5 08-30-2005, 07:24 PM

I think what he means is that threaded mode makes it really easy to follow from week to week if anyone has trouble following the trail of picks.

sygamel · #6 08-30-2005, 07:27 PM

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I think what he means is that threaded mode makes it really easy to follow from week to week if anyone has trouble following the trail of picks.

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Yes.

craig · #7 08-30-2005, 08:23 PM

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I think what he means is that threaded mode makes it really easy to follow from week to week if anyone has trouble following the trail of picks.

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Yes.

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Well that is fine. But, knee caps are getting broken unless i find out why he didn't buy to 7.5 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ...especially for -104. I don't don't know what side is right on this game (yet), but I know that you should have bought to 7.5. If anyone disagrees with me I am more than willing to listen. And I am just trying to help.

craig

p.s. Or you might have been able to wait until the line moved to 7.5...the line generally move towards the favs.

sygamel · #8 08-30-2005, 08:50 PM

The Pinnacle line was at -107, not -104. I will be happy to do the math for you (though I'd rather not have to do this every time), as sure as you are I did the wrong thing:

Probability the Raiders lose by 8 or more: 46.11%
Probability the Raiders lose by exactly 7: 5.36%
Probability the Raiders lose by 6 or less or win: 48.53%

Win calculation based on +7.5 -107 -- ($50)*(.5389)+(-$53.50)*(.4611)=+$2.28

Win calculation based on +7 +106 -- ($50)*(.4853)+(0)*(.0536)+(-$47.17)*(.4611)=+$2.51

gjm112 · #9 08-30-2005, 11:04 PM

I agree with the EV math, but i'd argue the percentages. I think the pats will cover 7 or tie about 61 percent of the time.

sygamel · #10 08-31-2005, 06:51 AM

Well that analysis is certainly a lot different than "The Pats are going to murder oakland. Not even going to be close. Pats win by a minimum of ten points." Most people with statistical systems are rarely so cocksure about their picks, let alone a game covering 60% of the time.

Anyway, this is the first of hundreds of my picks. No need to analyze all of them in depth, let alone a 1 unit play.