never bluff a fish?

[Guruman]

CO villain in this hand is a true to life honest to god manna from heaven loose passive unthinking fish.

SB is most likely not sophisticated enough to check and induce a bluff with a pair on that river.

Absolute Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Guruman is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
2 folds, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, Guruman checks.

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3SB, 3 players)
SB checks, Guruman checks, CO checks.

Turn: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (1.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, Guruman checks, CO checks.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (1.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Guruman bets</font>

my thoughts here - if this hand checks through I lose it for sure. If I bet it though, there are tons of better hands that look like they're begging to fold. I'd check this with a K or Q, but having cards so low seems to swing this one to a bluff for me.

Crazy or KrazyKool?

[Scary_Tiger]

Crazy.

1.5 BB

[DocMartin]

[ QUOTE ]
(1.5BB, 3 players)

[/ QUOTE ]

But hey, depending on your opponents it just may work often enough to be profitable. Considering you will be looked up by any PP, a fresh 7, or sometimes K or Q high, seems unlikely.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
Crazy.

1.5 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. You need to fold both these guys 67% of the time, meaning each needs to fold on average sqrt(0.67) = a whopping 82% of the time to break even. Even if their fold % was above this you couldn't really make more than a fraction of a BB. In addition, these sort of flops aren't really conducive to people folding.

[Guruman]

fair enough, and I agree with the rationale. So, how big of a pot do you need to start bluffing with?

[waffle]

1 opponent too many. 1 street too late.

[Redd]

[ QUOTE ]
fair enough, and I agree with the rationale. So, how big of a pot do you need to start bluffing with?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it's sort of a catch-22 situation IMO, since if the pot were bigger there would have been some previous action that usually greatly increases the chance that someone's planning on going to showdown.

I guess as an academic exercise, if some pro-gambling philanthropist were to be walking by and threw some cash in the pot right when the river card was flipped, I'd be willing to try this bet with about 4.5BB in the pot. That means they each need to fold a little under half the time; I think the average player would probably fold a little more than this, but with the read on CO I need a little bit bigger pot.

[NSchandler]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to fold both these guys 67% of the time, meaning each needs to fold on average sqrt(0.67) = a whopping 82% of the time to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean 40% of the time, right? Each needs to fold 63.25% of the time.

[TomBrooks]

Not on that board. Not on that street. Not with that hand. Not against a calling station.

[milesdyson]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You need to fold both these guys 67% of the time, meaning each needs to fold on average sqrt(0.67) = a whopping 82% of the time to break even.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mean 40% of the time, right? Each needs to fold 63.25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah this is right