NL 50 QQ set value??

[sluggger5x]

Villian is 55/4/1. I am 100% sure he has AA here. That said with stack sizes, and reads is this preflop play +ev??


Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
sluggger5x: $90.70
UTG+1: $90.65
CO: $39.35
Button: $47.75
SB: $59.55
BB: $68.30

Pre-flop: (6 players) sluggger5x is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">sluggger5x raises to $2</font>, 4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $9</font>, sluggger5x calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($18.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $13</font>, <font color="#cc0000">sluggger5x raises to $30</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises all-in $59.3</font>, sluggger5x calls.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($136.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $136.85)


River: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($136.85, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $136.85)


Results:
Final pot: $136.85

by the way he had aa [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] bleh

[shoxbb6]

Can't call for set value, bb doesn't have enough behind

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
Can't call for set value, bb doesn't have enough behind

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain has just enough to call for set value...

$68 in stack +$2=$70 and it's $7 to call...

Very marginal going by the 5 and 10 rule..However others have done math that says you should be getting more like 12 to 1 to call for set value ALONE...

With that being said If I was 100% certain villain had AA I would fold...It's to high variance and only marginally +EV if that...

[shoxbb6]

You need something like 11-12:1 to call purely for set value, easy fold pf

[relativity_x]

odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[SirFelixCat]

[ QUOTE ]
odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that does not figure in the times in which you'll hit a set and lose as well as the times that the board will come QQJ and you won't get paid off with villain's stack.

Therefore, it's been shown that the "correct" odds for it to be EV neutral is 11.7:1 to set farm. HTH's!

[We Major]

[ QUOTE ]
odds of making a set:

1-[(47/49)*(46/48*(45/47)]=0.1199

so you need 1/.1199=8.3:1 to make it even money.

[/ QUOTE ]

What are the true odds of hitting a set?

I've seen 8.3:1 (which I used to think was correct). I've seen 7.5:1 listed on various internet sites. I've also seen other number around....

What's the definitive odds of hitting a set?

[sakrei]

looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

[KEW]

[ QUOTE ]
looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

[/ QUOTE ]

$7 to call so it's 10 to 1

[+EV]

[ QUOTE ]
looks close to me, $9 to win ~$70? about 7:1, i think call is ok,

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesnt it need to be like 11x not 8x to play for set value?

+EV