The New Cold War

[andyfox]

During the Old Cold War, the United States saw itself in a life and death battle against the worldwide, godless Communist menace. Almost every problem in the world was laid at the feet of the Soviet Union. Local issues and history were often ignored, and that led to a lot of disappointment later on when those factors caused results that we hadn't anticipated. Vietnam is certainly the most notable example.

In the current political debate in the media, it appears to me we are in a New Cold War. The enemy this time is terror and/or the Islamo-Facists. I heard one radio talk show host say that all the problems--in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Iran, in North Korea, in India, in Russia--are one in the same. It's all one war. World War III, according to Newt Gingrich.

If we approach problems with this attitude, we are bound to experience similar disappointments. Assuming, for example, that the actions of Hezbollah are all a result of what Syria and Iran wants done, is a mistake. Hezbollah has achieved its political success in Lebanon by transforming itself form an agent of those countries into an agent for domestic reform. This doesn't mean that Syria and Iran do not provide military and economic aid to Hezbollah, or that they have no influence. But to ignore local politics in Lebanon in planning our policies is to invite disaster.

[chrisnice]

In general your point is right on. However I would say that Iran and esp Syria are strong forces in local Lebanese politics.

[Sniper]

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But to ignore local politics in Lebanon in planning our policies is to invite disaster.


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Andy, can you elaborate on what specific local politics in Lebanon, you consider relevant enough to impact policy decisions by the US?

[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
During the Old Cold War, the United States saw itself in a life and death battle against the worldwide, godless Communist menace. Almost every problem in the world was laid at the feet of the Soviet Union. Local issues and history were often ignored, and that led to a lot of disappointment later on when those factors caused results that we hadn't anticipated. Vietnam is certainly the most notable example.

In the current political debate in the media, it appears to me we are in a New Cold War. The enemy this time is terror and/or the Islamo-Facists. I heard one radio talk show host say that all the problems--in Lebanon, in Iraq, in Iran, in North Korea, in India, in Russia--are one in the same. It's all one war. World War III, according to Newt Gingrich.

If we approach problems with this attitude, we are bound to experience similar disappointments. Assuming, for example, that the actions of Hezbollah are all a result of what Syria and Iran wants done, is a mistake. Hezbollah has achieved its political success in Lebanon by transforming itself form an agent of those countries into an agent for domestic reform. This doesn't mean that Syria and Iran do not provide military and economic aid to Hezbollah, or that they have no influence. But to ignore local politics in Lebanon in planning our policies is to invite disaster.

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Do you understand "cold" in the context of "cold war"? There is nothing cold about the war on terrorism, and I have 217 colleague's families who will attest to that.

[Sniper]

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Do you understand "cold" in the context of "cold war"? There is nothing cold about the war on terrorism, and I have 217 colleague's families who will attest to that.

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What does this mean, and how does it advance the discussion?

[andyfox]

There was plenty of hot war during the Old Cold War too. It was "cold" in the sense that the two protagonists did not directly engage each other and did not use their ultimate weapons.

But my point was that the Cold War manichean world outlook seems to be quite similar to the way many of our leaders are looking at today's situation.

[andyfox]

I'm not expert on Lebanon. But, for example, according to an article in today's L.A. Times by Reza Aslan of USC, when Syria was forced out of Lebanon after the assassination of former Prime Minsiter Hariri, Hezbollah rallied in support of Syria. This is how it was seen by our leaders. But the rally also involved a display of Lebanese nationalism. The half a million Hezbollah supporters who were in Beirut in March 2005 were clothed in the colors of Lebanon, not Syria. And since Syria's withdrawal, Hezbollah has continued to advocate protecting Lebanese territory and working across religious and sectarian lines to promote Lebanese unity, even forming a political partnership with Christian leader Michael Aoun.

As Lyndon Johson once said, all politics is local. To ignore that dimension is to see only part of the picture and it's often the part one doesn't see, either by choice or by myopia, that comes back to bite one in the ass.

[ACPlayer]

Link

[Peter666]

I thought you were going to mention the growing rift between Russia and the United States. Regardless, Islam is going to beat out liberal democracy in the long run because it has the moral imperative and unity to do so. Liberal societies tend to split into factions and weaken, and without a united front will not withstand Islam in the decades to come. I prefer a society of shawarmas and subjected women to that of Big Macs and fat feminists anyway.

[ACPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I thought you were going to mention the growing rift between Russia and the United States. Regardless, Islam is going to beat out liberal democracy in the long run because it has the moral imperative and unity to do so. Liberal societies tend to split into factions and weaken, and without a united front will not withstand Islam in the decades to come. I prefer a society of shawarmas and subjected women to that of Big Macs and fat feminists anyway.

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A bit extreme, eh Peter?

Anyway, Islam is not going to beat liberal democracy (is Islam even fighting liberal democracy, i dont think so). However, Islam is not going away, regardless of how many bombs are dropped. For one thing the long term demographics act against its demise.

If Judaism can survive brutal oppression and hounding by the powers of those time, Islam too can survive the same that they are being subjected to.

So, for those who are fighting Islam, that is a losing battle. Fighting terrorism is fighting a political battle and that is where the victories and peace will come from -- if at all.

Incidentally, nothing quite like a Falafel in Jerusalem, with a bit of hummus, some eggplant, and all the fixings.