TPTK sandwiched between aggressors

[XmasXmas]

UTG+2 is on the slightly loose side of a tag. i'm not posting stats b/c he's playing differently than normal. him and a lag at the table have been talking and have a contest of sorts going on for who can win more pots. the other player is unknown.

please please please don't say fold pf.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed)

MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO (poster) caps</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (14.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+2 caps</font>, Hero ?

[James.]

you're getting around 12-1 with the call. i would typcially just fold(yes even pf before it's capped; AJo is kind of a [censored] hand in my opinion, i may cc or 3bet AJs because it plays better multiway). you seem to have a read to the contrary with these guys, but alot needs to be right about that read for anything but folding to be correct IMO. i don't think we have 4 outs on this flop. maybe 2.5 or 3. reverse implied odds need to be factored in.

[buhler26]

You're getting basically 24-2 pot odds to call the flop cap. I think that is worth seeing the turn. You are most likely up against over pairs, which would give you between 2 and 5 outs. If these guys are playing crazy to win a lot of pots, you may be up against less than that. I stick around to the turn and reevaluate there.

[XmasXmas]

i'm not sure if this was clear in the OP. utg+2 was a part of the contest to win pots. the CO was not. he just sat down, posted, and is a complete unknown to me.

[biendover]

You have to call the flop cap and see what the turn brings. You may possibly be behind w/higher PP. Someone could also be getting goosy w/AK.

I would call cap on flop. If safe card hits, raise turn &amp; fold to 3 bet. You can also check/call turn and fold if raised.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
please please please don't say fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? Unless you've kept something from us you should fold this preflop.

UTG's range is pretty much:
AA(3 combos): 2 outs
KK(6): 5
QQ(6): 5
JJ(1): 0
77(3): 0

So against him you'll have 3.5 outs on average. If this is one of his laggy days he might even hold KJ´. You don't have good implied odds if you hit, you'll either still be behind if he holds AA/JJ/77, or an A or a J will scare your opponents.

3.5 outs is exactly what you need to be able to call, and that's what you have against UTG, but even if CO is laggy he will sometimes holda a hand such as AA/JJ/77 or some other hand that beats you. I think you can fold this flop. The only way I could see calling the flop is if you think you can get to a sd cheap if you're ahead and think you're a decent ammount of the time, but I don't think that's the case here.

[jookiebrown]

fold. I have to believe one of them has a real hand. I don't see any way to get to a showdown cheaply. I don't want to spend 6BB to find out I'm drawing to running aces or jacks.

[Bill C]

If you have a copy of SSHE, read through the short section on Big unsuited hands. You really don't want to be calling pf raises with a hand that can be so easily dominated. I realize you said you didn't want to hear that, but it is impossible to give you a decent reply without putting that in.

By staying in this far, you have put yourself in a position where the pot is very large and you are getting yourself tied into it, while not likely to win it. I'll go with the advice of James and Nick, and fold it.

This might be a good hand for you to reflect on, and instead of focusing on your OWN hand, think about what the other players might have, based on the way they have bet this far.

Just my $.02 worth...

bill c

Edit: Addendum: One of the reasons to avoid playing marginal hands pf ( a'la this one) is you can often find yourself tied in and betting the second best hand. This point is made in SSHE as well.

bc

[ThomasPHoolery]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
please please please don't say fold pf.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why? Unless you've kept something from us you should fold this preflop.

UTG's range is pretty much:
AA(3 combos): 2 outs
KK(6): 5
QQ(6): 5
JJ(1): 0
77(3): 0

So against him you'll have 3.5 outs on average. If this is one of his laggy days he might even hold KJ´. You don't have good implied odds if you hit, you'll either still be behind if he holds AA/JJ/77, or an A or a J will scare your opponents.

3.5 outs is exactly what you need to be able to call, and that's what you have against UTG, but even if CO is laggy he will sometimes holda a hand such as AA/JJ/77 or some other hand that beats you. I think you can fold this flop. The only way I could see calling the flop is if you think you can get to a sd cheap if you're ahead and think you're a decent ammount of the time, but I don't think that's the case here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero obviously from original post understands that either calling or raising this pre-flop is not a standard play. He's basically said that through what is going on at the table, he felt that this play was correct in this given situation. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here, and I think focusing on preflop takes away from the flop decision.

As for the range you give the villian, it's way too restrictive. UTG+2's range, if he's been lagging it up a bit can be much wider. Throw in discounted hands like KJs,QJs, J10s, A7s,78s,67s, and total garbage like 57 off (though highly discounted).
If the OP feels that 3-jacking AJo is correct vs this player preflop, his range is wide enough for me to call him down here, but that's not the hard part of the hand. The hard part is the CO being in there, who, we'll assume is a complete unknown, and not retarded until proven otherwise. His range may more accurately reflect the range you gave UTG+2, but needs to have AJ thrown in at a discounted rate.

Now, the flop decision comes down to this for me. We're basically making the decision right now whether or not we are going to a) take this hand to the river and fold unimproved or, b) take this hand to the river and call down unimporved or c) fold.

Yes, we are getting like 23.5 to 2 to call on the flop, BUT we are NEVER seeing the river for just those two small bets. A conservative estimate is that it costs us an additional 1.5BB (and feel free to challange that number) just to see the river, and not call down, meaning it will basically calling is commiting us to 5SB in a pot that will be 32.5SB if we improve (23.5 in the pot right now + 6 on the turn (1.5BB per player) and 3SB on the river (if we do improve-- earning 1.5BB on the river seems about right to me, but again, this number is up in the air to be argued). Now that number is an estimate, but I thinks it's a best case scenerio for our hand. That puts us at basically 6.5 to 1, needing about 13% equity in the hand. We'd need 3.5 clean outs to make this call, and I just don't think we can find that. Additionally, situations come up where two blanks fall on the turn and river, UTG+2 checks, you check and CO bets, UTG folds and we are left in the situation of potentially having to defend the pot.

The other option if we call the flop is commiting ourselves to showing down the hand, which can get really expensive and I just don't like.

In short: Preflop-- if you say this was the right play, fine I'll believe you, but gotta fold this flop.

[biendover]

Sorry, I thought OP 3bet on the flop and had to call just one for the cap. But with the actual action, I'm folding. Sorry for the earlier post.