A bluff 400NL

[Lurkerinox]

Villain is 26/7/2, early orbit, no further reads, seems a bit passive. This is fine right? I imagine how it can be good even without the 3 really, but this should be the perfect card right?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

UTG ($170.75)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($440)</font>
CO ($443.72)
<font color="#C00000">Button ($453.70)</font>
SB ($558)
BB ($1277.08)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $14</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $14, SB (poster) calls $12, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($46) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $37</font>, Button calls $37, SB folds.

Turn: ($120) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $95</font>, Button calls $95.

River: ($310) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets $294.

[cameronbarry]

I love it. Problem is, no one at 2/4 folds here ever.

[Ebonwoulfe]

I'm not too sure you have to bet so much on the river, a smaller bet would fold all the missed flush draws and probably bluff just as many pairs as a pot-sized bet does.

White text that you shouldn't read if you're trying to analyze this: <font color="white"> Considering that the top of the HH has red, bold players as going to the showdown, I guess we know he gets called. Or is that just a wierd HH thing? </font>

[Isura]

sure, he'll fold 45, 67, 88 and the A-high flush draw. But I don't think that he has these hands close to 50% of the time. 120 and 200 both seem like better sizes imo.

[FeltBelt]

I'd put out a bet that looks like it wants a call a little more here. $150 should be sufficient to get him to fold anything he'll fold, and if he raises, you can safely fold.

Pushing here only gets folds from the same hands $150 gets folds from, and gets called when you're beaten. Your goal is to get in the first bet and take the pot down when you can, and ~$150 will do that. Your goal isn't to bet more than you need to and get stacked when he'd have raised if you'd bet $150 and saved you the rest of your stack.

[MDMA]

You guys are all approaching this in the wrong way. He's prone to have a weak hand; that's why we are making the bluff in the first place; most players of this kind just don't cold call sets/two pairs/straight on two streets here. Of course I wouldn't do this against a 60/40-type of guy, a real maniac prone to be doing anything and calling anything.

Would you just bet 150 here w/ AA or KK? I don't think so. Yes, if we bet 150 here we can safely fold cuz we got NOTHING. If you bet 150 here w/ AA, are you folding to the raise for 140 more? I don't think you are given his line.

You just cannot reason in a vacuum here; you have to think of what you would do when you have the got damn hand you are trying to represent. If people are going to make heroic calls here (given his line I think we can safely assume that nearly all of the time, anything he is calling w/ is just beating a bluff), how do you punish them the most? By going allin w/ your good hands obviously to charge the the most. If you then want to use the same opportunities to bluff (which you SHOULD do simply because of something called GAME THEORY), then you obviously have to bet the same amount.

Isura, then what DO you think he have? If you don't think he has stuff like that even close to 50% of the hands, then kindly provide a hand range for him.

[FeltBelt]

[ QUOTE ]
You just cannot reason in a vacuum here; you have to think of what you would do when you have the got damn hand you are trying to represent.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be dense, but I do not follow your reasoning here, my friend.

Unless you've played a lot with this villian, or anticipate playing with this villian a lot in the future (like thousands of hands worth of play), I don't think your reasoning, such as I understand it, follows.

Why do the third/fourth level metagame stuff against a tight passsive when you can make a "perfect" play right now, in this pot? You can always adjust your future play based on the results of this play.

[Slappz]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd put out a bet that looks like it wants a call a little more here. $150 should be sufficient to get him to fold anything he'll fold, and if he raises, you can safely fold.

Pushing here only gets folds from the same hands $150 gets folds from, and gets called when you're beaten. Your goal is to get in the first bet and take the pot down when you can, and ~$150 will do that. Your goal isn't to bet more than you need to and get stacked when he'd have raised if you'd bet $150 and saved you the rest of your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hes got king high.

[FeltBelt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'd put out a bet that looks like it wants a call a little more here. $150 should be sufficient to get him to fold anything he'll fold, and if he raises, you can safely fold.

Pushing here only gets folds from the same hands $150 gets folds from, and gets called when you're beaten. Your goal is to get in the first bet and take the pot down when you can, and ~$150 will do that. Your goal isn't to bet more than you need to and get stacked when he'd have raised if you'd bet $150 and saved you the rest of your stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hes got king high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate posts like this.

What is your point, exactly?

[MDMA]

Okay, I'm gonna illustrate it for you. You go ahead and find new tables and players everyday and you will not EVER have to, for example c/r or lead w /a draw/bluff and still get paid off w/ a set every single time they have a pair, following your logic. If YOU like betting 150 w/ AA/KK here, then by all means bluff like that as well. I do not, thus I would also bluff allin obviously. You seem to not really grasp how there isn't a "perfect play right now, in this spot" regardless of all others.

Betting 150 here isn't perfect in anyway, and you are mistaken that people not even realizing stuff like the things I said will NOT call an allin as often as 150, simply because the way they see it it's just CHEAPER to call the first bet, and doesn't care about anything else.

You can oversimplify every situation in poker like you did, and you'll soon find out it just doesn't work that way.