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  #1  
Old 01-20-2006, 03:32 AM
Emon96 Emon96 is offline
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Location: big fish in little ponds
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Default weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

It seems like i have good pot odds to draw here. Should i be afraid of a possible boat given the previous wishy washy action?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t1405)
SB (t1780)
Hero (t2335)
UTG (t1995)
MP1 (t2720)
MP2 (t965)
CO (t960)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t100</font>, SB calls t75, Hero calls t50.

Flop: (t300) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
button raises to 100, SB calls 100, hero ???
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  #2  
Old 01-20-2006, 04:52 AM
Rocco Rocco is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like i have good pot odds to draw here.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have 5 to 1 in pot odds and 10.5 to 1 against improving your gut-shot. Goes down to something like 5.1 to 1 if you count both turn and river, but you have to take further betting into account. I'd fold...
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  #3  
Old 01-20-2006, 05:12 AM
nath nath is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

You don't have good odds and you could be drawing to a losing hand. Throw it away.
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  #4  
Old 01-20-2006, 01:50 PM
Emon96 Emon96 is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

Ok...since a 6 is what i am drawing for i have appoxamately a 16% chance to win this hand or roughly 1 in 6. If i call this bet i am getting 600 for my 100 dollar call. According to poker books this is the kind of call i want to make more often. I ended up throwing it away, but is this a losing fold from a weak-tight player...or should i insta call despite the fact that a boat could already be sailing??
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  #5  
Old 01-20-2006, 02:03 PM
adanthar adanthar is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

You have a 16% chance if there is BOTH no boat out there AND you will not face another bet on the turn.
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  #6  
Old 01-20-2006, 02:10 PM
Emon96 Emon96 is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

[ QUOTE ]
You have a 16% chance if there is BOTH no boat out there AND you will not face another bet on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

So what is the minimum i should be calling/raising these weak bets with??
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  #7  
Old 01-20-2006, 04:15 PM
stremba stremba is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

First of all, I'm not sure how you get 16% for your chance of winning. The easiest way to calculate your winning chances are to calculate the chance that a six won't hit which is (44/47)*(43/46) = 87.5%. Therefore, your chance of winning is 12.5% or about 1 in 8, not 1 in 6. Furthermore you ignore the fact that if your 6 doesn't hit on the turn that you will probably be forced to pay more than 100. As an extreme example, suppose one of your opponents pushes and the other folds. You would then no longer have correct pot odds to continue your draw and you would be forced to fold. Therefore, your winning chance may not even be 12.5%, but rather something lower. The correct way to evaluate this (ignoring implied odds for the moment) is that you have three outs on the turn and there are 47 possible cards that could come on the turn. Therefore, the chance of your hitting your 6 on the turn are 3/47 or in terms of odds, a bit more than 12:1 against. It's possible that implied odds would make this a valid call, but if your opponents really are weak, you aren't likely to be able to get much from them should you hit your draw. It's also possible that one of your opponents is slowplaying a boat, in which case you are drawing dead. All in all, I think a fold is correct here.
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  #8  
Old 02-03-2006, 12:44 PM
Chicago Kid Chicago Kid is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

Why would you bother defending with 57os?

I know it's just a minraise, but you're really looking for a lot of help from the get-go.
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  #9  
Old 02-03-2006, 01:04 PM
rockin rockin is offline
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Default Re: weak bets to me and i have dummy end gutshot.

[ QUOTE ]
It seems like i have good pot odds to draw here. Should i be afraid of a possible boat given the previous wishy washy action?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Button (t1405)
SB (t1780)
Hero (t2335)
UTG (t1995)
MP1 (t2720)
MP2 (t965)
CO (t960)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t100</font>, SB calls t75, Hero calls t50.

Flop: (t300) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
button raises to 100, SB calls 100, hero ???

[/ QUOTE ]

SB and you checked the flop?
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