Set pushes the turn on a very scary board.

[Pokey]

<font color="blue">Here's an interesting hand I played earlier today. Take a look and see what you think.

The deck has been hitting me squarely in the face, so my image is a bit LAGgy right now -- I'm playing about 40/20 on this table. Despite this, my c-bets are still getting TONS of respect, and I'm winning most hands without a showdown.

The table as a whole is awful: all three limpers in this hand had VPIPs over 50%. They are not threats here.

However, villain (CO) in this hand is decent: 22/10 preflop, 2.6 average aggression postflop, and he usually shows down a winner.</font>

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $173.95
UTG+1: $44.60
CO: $100
Pokey: $125.25
SB: $46.35
BB: $99

Pre-flop: (6 players) Pokey is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#cc0000">CO raises to $6</font>, Pokey calls, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 folds.

<font color="blue">With as bad as the other three players are, I can easily call this bet on implied odds. I'd be shocked to see a limp-reraise, and I fully expect at LEAST one other player to call behind me. I also expect to snap off a good c-bet with a check-raise if I hit nicely.</font>

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($26, 4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $20</font>, Pokey calls, 2 folds.

<font color="blue">Interesting; in addition to my pocket pair, I've added an OESD to the mix. Villain's bet is big, but I call anyways, hoping to entice overcalls behind me. I also expect to stack villain if I hit nicely.</font>

Turn: 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($66, 2 players)
CO checks, <font color="#cc0000">Pokey bets $74</font>....

<font color="blue">The interesting play. My feeling is that a decent, thinking opponent is going to know I'm not drawing to an inside straight for $20 on the flop; therefore, he'll expect the 8 didn't give me the straight. That means he should call with a WIDE variety of hands that I'm killing, like overpairs, two-pair hands, TPTK, nut flush draws, maybe even A8 or AK.

What do you think of this play?</font>

[derosnec]

I bet $40. Overbetting says TT and makes sense for a number of sets (since you called PF). $74 will likely fold him out.

[beavens]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet $40. Overbetting says TT and makes sense for a number of sets (since you called PF). $74 will likely fold him out.

[/ QUOTE ]

i also advocate not overbetting the pot as i think it'll get hand you are crushing to fold.

i put villain on an overpair here, maybe AK.

unless he gets frisky in LP with SCs, etc.

still like betting 2/3-3/4 pot here.

[fish43]

&gt;&gt;My feeling is that a decent, thinking opponent is going to know I'm not drawing to an inside straight for $20 on the flop&lt;&lt;

...unless you have a pair and an inside straight.

What is he thinking you called with? You have LAG stats, so he could put you on T8, 86, 76, 98, T9, 65. I think the range of hands that the villian calls with is smaller. If he thinks you are bluffing, then he still has to have a hand to call. I think he folds most of the time.

[EMc]

Pokey,

You werent getting any more value here. You probably cant check the turn, cause the river could kill your action, but hes probably not calling this bet.

I would also bet lower. As a math guy, consider the the potential EV of checking the turn for a higher %age call of a river bet v. a turn bet the IMO has a lower call percentage.

[gd_river]

i saw the hand and like the turn play...i would type more, but your explanation was what i was thinking...although you could just pot the turn, but thats only a difference of 5.

[subzero]

I think the turn froze villain. With your VP$IP, he's worried about the straight. I think the overbet is only getting called by TT. I'd bet less, maybe 1/2 pot.

[ajmargarine]

Pokey:

I don't like it. Yes, he probably knows you aren't chasing a gutshot. But, with that board, 55-TT is within your range and his big pp is behind. Also, sc's have to be within your range and have him behind as well. I think you are making it too easy for him to fold a big pp here. His hand is basically face-up as his flop bet is very unlikely to be a missed overs CB 4-handed. 1/2 pot or so looks good to me and looks more like you are taking a shot at it. Or maybe even a check behind, followed by a river push, complex but real sexxy.

[Pokey]

To those who are advocating a smaller bet:

What smaller hands call a half-pot bet that fold to a pot-sized all-in bet? I think the added $40 from a called push more than makes up for the few extra folds this play earns. I'd prefer to get the money in while he's still got hope for a lucky river card, rather than waiting to let him see that he's iced before I try to get the cash.

Plus, I'm hoping that my aggressive win-before-the-flop betting style has planted just enough suspicion in his head to warrant a call by a hand that I'm clobbering.

I hear what you're all saying, but I'm vividly reminded of NLHTAP's numerous discussions of small value bets versus large value bets, and the EV calculations. Unless this overbet reduces the probability that villain calls by a TON, it's the better choice. This is especially true since almost 20% of the deck counterfeits my hand if I'm ahead, meaning that scooping the pot right now is not the worst thing that could happen.

Example: assume villain has QQ. If villain calls, I win 77.3% of the time at showdown, and tie 9.1% of the time. Say that villain calls 50% of the time when I make a small value bet of $30. My EV from this play:

EV = 0.5*(+$66) + 0.5*(0.7727*(+$96) + 0.0455*(-$30) + 0.1818*(+$33)) = +$73.91

Now, say that villain calls a $74 push with probability C:

EV = (1-C)*(66) + C*(0.7727*(140) + 0.0455*(-74) + 0.1818*(+$33))

This gives the same EV as the smaller value bet when C = 17.7%! So long as villain doesn't reduce his calling probability from 50% down to below 18%, we're better off pushing.

Why do we get such a surprising result? Because our hand is still reasonably fragile, and there's a BUNCH of dead money in the middle. At this point in the hand, having villain fold isn't a bad thing, even against a hand as badly beaten as QQ. If he's calling, I need to make sure it's a BIG mistake for him, and with as much dead money as there already is in the middle, that requires a good-sized bet. Note that with as much dead money as is already in the pot, I'm not even making much of a mistake in pushing against a made straight: my full house outs make this a roughly break-even play.

The large pot and the numerous cards that kill my hand make pushing here a good thing, even if villain folds almost always. The more I think about this problem, the more I think a smaller bet, even if it gets called extremely frequently, would be a mistake.

EDIT: math is hard.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]


At this point in the hand, having villain fold isn't a bad thing, even against a hand as badly beaten as QQ....Note that with as much dead money as is already in the pot, I'm not even making much of a mistake in pushing against a made straight: my full house outs make this a roughly break-even play.


[/ QUOTE ]

Get off the pipe, son.