Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?

[Qbawler311]

OK....so How do I calculate the percent edge the bookies or bettor has, while factoring in the line discrepencies?

If the spread is the same i think you do it like this:
Bookies1: NBA- PHI +5.5 -110
CHI -5.5 -110

Bookies2: NBA- PHI +5.5 +110
CHI -5.5 -120

Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
no, because only one team can cover the same spread. the way you structured it, if the bulls win by 6 or more, you win $10, but if philly wins or loses by 5 or less, then you lose $9.09.

[Qbawler311]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
no, because only one team can cover the same spread. the way you structured it, if the bulls win by 6 or more, you win $10, but if philly wins or loses by 5 or less, then you lose $9.09.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was using the numbers for the calculations not bets, just as a proof of concept, given that situation you can have a win-win situation (although very small) if you balance your wagers properly.

[Qbawler311]

What I really need is the *Math* you use when have different spreads to calcualte the scalpers advantage in an arbitrage situation. I am writing software an am having trouble implementing some of the algorithms when planning for different spread scenarios.

Maybe some of you heard of Win Risk Free, I am developing software like that, except it will work better. I almost have a working beta that I will release soon as I deem it stable.

[Qbawler311]

I am thinking you keep the math the same but you also get the added hedging scenario with different spreads providing the odds are also favorable.

Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really struggling with some basic math here, are you sure you want to pursue this?

Your minimum profit is not $2.70 in your example. You win $102.7 - 87 = $15.70 if Phi covers and lose $104.40-$113=-$8.60 if Chi covers. You really need to get a handle on this before you go any further, this is simple stuff.





[ QUOTE ]
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

As to this question, the Math is simple (though still harder than simple scalp above), you simply multiply the probabilty of a 5, 6 or 7 being the final score by the amount you'll win if those numbers hit (e.g. 6 wins both bets, 5 & 7 win one and push the other, since the bet amounts are different you will have a different outcome on each of 5, 6 & 7).

The trouble is there is no simple way to get the probabilities of landing on 5, 6 or 7 -- there is no mathematical rule you can use. An NBA game is different from NCAABB game, a game between Pho & Sea is different from a game between SA & Mem, a game lined at +2 is different from a game lined at +10, the chances of landing on 1,2 or 3 are different from the chances of 6,7 or 8, a home game for NY is different from an away game for NY, a game back in Dec is different from a game in March etc. The best you can do is use historical data, figure out which games are most similar to the one you're looking at and see how often 5,6 & 7 hit in those games and hope it's close to the same in your game. Craig gave a link above which is a probably about as good as your going to do with out a ton of work.

Good luck.

[Qbawler311]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

You are really struggling with some basic math here, are you sure you want to pursue this?

Your minimum profit is not $2.70 in your example. You win $102.7 - 87 = $15.70 if Phi covers and lose $104.40-$113=-$8.60 if Chi covers. You really need to get a handle on this before you go any further, this is simple stuff.





[ QUOTE ]
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!

[/ QUOTE ]

As to this question, the Math is simple (though still harder than simple scalp above), you simply multiply the probabilty of a 5, 6 or 7 being the final score by the amount you'll win if those numbers hit (e.g. 6 wins both bets, 5 & 7 win one and push the other, since the bet amounts are different you will have a different outcome on each of 5, 6 & 7).

The trouble is there is no simple way to get the probabilities of landing on 5, 6 or 7 -- there is no mathematical rule you can use. An NBA game is different from NCAABB game, a game between Pho & Sea is different from a game between SA & Mem, a game lined at +2 is different from a game lined at +10, the chances of landing on 1,2 or 3 are different from the chances of 6,7 or 8, a home game for NY is different from an away game for NY, a game back in Dec is different from a game in March etc. The best you can do is use historical data, figure out which games are most similar to the one you're looking at and see how often 5,6 & 7 hit in those games and hope it's close to the same in your game. Craig gave a link above which is a probably about as good as your going to do with out a ton of work.

Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch yes, I see how I was very stupid. I am very knew to this. I really appreciate your post, you demonstrated how I was wrong. Plus, after seeing that I am a noob you continued to help.

Thank you

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
What I really need is the *Math* you use when have different spreads to calcualte the scalpers advantage in an arbitrage situation. I am writing software an am having trouble implementing some of the algorithms when planning for different spread scenarios.

Maybe some of you heard of Win Risk Free, I am developing software like that, except it will work better. I almost have a working beta that I will release soon as I deem it stable.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you can't figure out how to calculate an arb bet, I'm frightened by how poor your "software" must be.

[playersare]

I think what OP is trying to do is to make his software detect profitable sides and middles (incl. juice) in addition to pure scalps on the same line as most programs already do. however, these calculations are highly arbitrary and it is ultimately up to the individual bettor whether to take the margin or buy/sell back the half points.

as I've gotten more experienced in sportsbetting over time, I found that I am much more efficient in finding good opportunities with my own eye rather than waiting for some program to beep on a screen, by then usually it's too late to react anyway.

[Freerollin`]

[ QUOTE ]
If you can't figure out how to calculate an arb bet, I'm frightened by how poor your "software" must be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why say this? What's the purpose?

I find it hard to believe that someone with a grand total of 27 posts decides to say something like this. I've got > 500, and I wouldn't consider being a jerk like you.