Calculate Arbitrage/Scalp bet with different spreads?

[Qbawler311]

Lets say I got this scenario:

Bookies1: NBA- PHI +5.5 -110
CHI -5.5 -110

Bookies2: NBA- PHI +4.5 +110
CHI -4.5 -120

How do I calculate the percent edge the bookies or bettor has, while factoring in the line discrepencies? All help is appreciated. Please show math.

[ImBen]

This is not a profitable middle. Not even close.

[ImBen]

I'm assuming Bookie2 is Pinnacle, and this is the better line on both sides. If you want to make sure, look at the drop-down box and compare the prices at the other spread.

[playersare]

profitable NBA middles are generally no more than 5c combined juice per half point. so for example, I would play +5.5 -110 if there was -4.5 +100 available. most of the time, good plays require to you take open leads and wait for the steam to blow the line further down before closing.

[Qbawler311]

OK....so How do I calculate the percent edge the bookies or bettor has, while factoring in the line discrepencies?

If the spread is the same i think you do it like this:
Bookies1: NBA- PHI +5.5 -110
CHI -5.5 -110

Bookies2: NBA- PHI +5.5 +110
CHI -5.5 -120

Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
no, because only one team can cover the same spread. the way you structured it, if the bulls win by 6 or more, you win $10, but if philly wins or loses by 5 or less, then you lose $9.09.

[craig]

Line Converter

craig

[Qbawler311]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Highest odds PHI: Bookies2=PHI with +110
Highest odds CHI: Bookies1=CHI with -110

PHI +110 = 11/10 = 110
CHI -110 = 10/11 = 90.91

110 + 90.91 = 200.91

200/200.91 = 99.55% or a .45% combined profit to the arb better

Is this correct?

[/ QUOTE ]
no, because only one team can cover the same spread. the way you structured it, if the bulls win by 6 or more, you win $10, but if philly wins or loses by 5 or less, then you lose $9.09.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was using the numbers for the calculations not bets, just as a proof of concept, given that situation you can have a win-win situation (although very small) if you balance your wagers properly.

[Qbawler311]

What I really need is the *Math* you use when have different spreads to calcualte the scalpers advantage in an arbitrage situation. I am writing software an am having trouble implementing some of the algorithms when planning for different spread scenarios.

Maybe some of you heard of Win Risk Free, I am developing software like that, except it will work better. I almost have a working beta that I will release soon as I deem it stable.

[Qbawler311]

I am thinking you keep the math the same but you also get the added hedging scenario with different spreads providing the odds are also favorable.

Let's try another example so you guys can tell me I'm wrong again. More obvious this time (for example sake)

Book1: PHI +7 -110
Book2: CHI -5 +120

Price conversions:
-110 = 10/11 = 90.91%
+120 = 12/10 = 120%

$113 on PHI gives $102.70 on win
$87 on CHI gives $104.40 on win

so you have a gauranteed minimum $2.70 profit.
1.78% average investment on you $200
PLUS if CHI wins by 5, 6, or 7 points you win huge with the hedge.

If anyone know how to factor in this "win huge with the hedge" factor into my mathematics example I am interested!