40 Year Old Vs 65 Year Old American Hitting 90

[ut2010]

ugh not health and fitness too.

[KingGordy]

I choose the 65 year old.

[AZK]

40

[Yobz]

Would answers change if you say 20 year old versus 65 year old?

Clearly this boils down to one thing:
Probability of dying between the ages of 40 and 65 versus the medical advancements made in 25 years.

I'll take medical advancements in 25 years, I think the probability of dying b/w 40 and 65 is pretty small.

I'll way favor 20 in a 20 vs 65 to reach 90.

[ncray]

[ QUOTE ]

Clearly this boils down to one thing:
Probability of dying between the ages of 40 and 65 versus the medical advancements made in 25 years.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think cohort effects are also pretty important. 40 year olds were born in the 60s and 65 year olds in the 40s. Were the 65 year olds exposed to more hazardous materials that might have a lasting detrimental effect on health (radon watch hands, pesticides, thalidomide, lead paint, asbestos)? Is this offset somewhat by the increasing obesity trend? Are the current 40 year olds fatter by a significant margin so that their fatness offsets (in terms of life expectancy) their hopefully smaller degree of exposure to toxins?

[jogsxyz]

The 65 year old is 25 years closer to 90.
He's got to be the favorite.

What % of 65 year olds are overweight or obese?
What % of 40 year olds are overweight or obese?

It's possible the 40 year olds are more out of shape.

[Blarg]

The fact that the 65 year old even made it to 65 favors him strongly as far as genetics and social factors(poor people don't last as long and often have far unhealthier lifestyles). The 40-year olds haven't been sorted out by those two factors nearly so much.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly this boils down to one thing:
Probability of dying between the ages of 40 and 65 versus the medical advancements made in 25 years.

[/ QUOTE ]

also the probablility of a random 40 year old having access to those future life extension tech. since for a random person they probably won't have access, it makes the comparison like sometihng between two things , each at a very very low probability.

[Wolfram]

I imagine this could be solved mathematically.

Let f(x) be a function of the average life expectancy of an american male, where x is the year.

Let g(x) be the death rate for american males in one year where x is the age.

Find out where the two functions intersect. If it's > 40 years then you chose the 65 year old.

This is probably wrong and oversimplified but someone who's better at math should be able to solve this.

[Bond18]

The 40 year old. He has more time to turn around any unhealthy habits he has and improve his fitness. That is assuming he makes the effort.