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Old 11-29-2007, 04:27 AM
patrick10 patrick10 is offline
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 239
Default Re: Too aggressive with a set?

ok well looking at PF and flop, villain raises with 15% so we can include pairs + AK KQ KJs QJs and probably like AJs and ATs in his raise range.

He leads out super weak, but given his stats of 54/15 he is probably quite fishy. He calls your raise which is a good size, which i think SHOULD narrow his range down to like AK KQ KJs,AA, QQ, JJ, (KK, 66 - def possible at this stage).

He leads out again on the turn, again super weak. I think there are probably 3 basic scenarios for this.

1) Villain is on a draw and is putting out a cheap blocking bet in the hopes you just call. Quite common usually; but on this board very unlikely given the action. The only reasonable hands which may fit into this category for villain would be the diamond combinations of the next category.

2) Weaker made hands like TPGK+ and even the underpairs QQ and JJ which he doesnt want to give up. I think this is the most likely group and includes: AK, KQ, KJ, QQ, JJ

3) Super strong hands. KK, 66 have you screwed and some villains will bet out very weak to induce a raise. I could also include AA in this category because even though you have him crushed with a set, MOST villains will think AA is the nuts on such a dry board and may try to play it tricky.

I may have rambled, so cliff notes: Villain will often turn up with KQ, KJ, QQ, JJ here. I think AK is calling alot.
Turn raise may be slightly too big- maybe $15- $18 would have been better
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