200NL: I Hate Letting Go

[illini43]

If you can assume you will get it in on the flop basically all of the time you hit, you are being offered 10.2:1 (calling $23 to win $234 total) effective odds.

You will make a hand (flush/two pair/straight/trips/full house/quads) 5.6% of the time and flop a strong draw (12+ outs) 6.9% of the time. (this is from a stickied post in SSNL)

If you add these together, you get 12.5% of the time (7:1 odds). So, theoretically you are getting offered good effective odds to call, but that is if you are guaranteed to get AI everytime.

From a math perspective, if you are sure you can get your hand AI 75% of the time you hit your hand (9.375% of the total time you call), you would still be getting better than the necessary 9.1 or so % to call based on your effective odds.

Granted, there are times you will hit your hand, and your opponent will have you beat, but I hope this math at least gives an insight into this type of decision. I think it is very close since the 4bet is so small, but I would probably fold preflop.