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  #1  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:52 PM
johnnydrama johnnydrama is offline
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Default Re: Have I just run lucky at $1 $2 cash games?

How are we supposed to "evaluate" getting good hole cards?
I would think the true measure of a winning player is not how often they get AA but what they do with it in each particular hand, by itself.

I would think we all have to start from a common point, that being our hole cards. So are you saying I need 100k hands logged before I even know if I am playing correctly?

I can't control the cards I am dealt, only what I do with them. I have a hard time beleiving this is any measure of good play.

Thanks!
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Old 11-27-2007, 03:19 PM
SellingtheDrama SellingtheDrama is offline
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Default Re: Have I just run lucky at $1 $2 cash games?

I don't remember the frequencies for unpaired cards offhand, but I recall it being once every 221 hands to be dealt a given pair. So if you play 1000 hands and get aces 10x, you are running good and likely will win more than average/expected. That's about all I was trying to say. The other measure as an example would be set mining with more success than mathematically expected.

I don't believe any player will ever know his/her true winrates, because there are simply too many variables, including the experience one (which hopefully means you are constantly improving).

The original question dealt with 'running lucky' and I was trying to suggest a quantifiable measure to assess that luck.
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Old 11-27-2007, 03:34 PM
johnnydrama johnnydrama is offline
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Default Re: Have I just run lucky at $1 $2 cash games?

Then could you take it to another level and see how much you win with each PP dealt and compare it to expected wins? That way you know if you are making too much with 66, or JJ? Trying to quantify this is enough to make your head spin! I think I got what you are saying. I hope getting hit with the deck during a session would be obvious enough so one doesn't think he is crushing the game when he gets AA and KK four times in a hour.
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