600NL: To fire a 3rd?

[1o BoY]

I would never fire a river here!

[ahnuld]

meh, you could get him off a Q if you fire again but im not sure how often he has that. Fire occasionally but check behind should be standard, especially since it wasnt something like a J or a T that fell, or a diamond.

[jfish]

on a board this heavy, most LAPs manage to minraise the turn or something if they have Kx which is not full - so i tend to discount that part of his range somewhat if not fairly heavily. i do not believe he folds FDs and other decent 15%+ draws (oesds) on the turn because he is LAP. i also think that some of the time you definitely have to expect a call from Qx even on the river from a guy like this.

ok so, hands that will certainly call a river shove (inc. combinations):

AQs - 2
AJd-A2d - 10
KQs/KQo - 16
JTs/JTo - 16
88 - 3

(50 total combos)

hands that will usually fold to a shove (note that he could have additional weaker hands depending how loose he is preflop):

T9d - 1
QJs-Q8s - 16
QJo-Q9o - 36
JJ-99 - 18

(71 total combos)

you have about $440 left in a $380 pot so your only move is to shove, but given it is CO vs BTN and that these guys are showdown monkeys usually, i think you should fold. getting him off Qx is certainly going to be difficult, and you never fold Ax+. if there were slightly more combos of Qx- i would probably shove pretty quickly vs everybody.

[jfish]

and the turn bet is very bad.

[ahnuld]

jfish, totally disagree, hes gonna have alot more missed diamonds than just T9d and for that (the fact that we actually have sd value) makes me want to check here as a default.