How bad can a player run in sit & goes ?

[Lori]

Run your simulator on several other players, it's virtually impossible to be as unlucky as those numbers say you are, so I'm pretty sure that either a) the simulator is working things out incorrectly, b) you're lying, c) you're the unluckiest person ever.

The likelihood of a random poster in BBV doing these things is something like a) 15% b) 85% c) 0%

<font color="white"> Lori </font>

[SongheJe]

Thanks for your answer, Lori.
I appreciated you at least valued my question.
I tried 'luckometer' on many regulars. Never had results like mine.
If you want to check, I attach here the log.
Meanwhile I played some other games so data are now: 627,813 chips expected, 502,848 won in 153 games/371 preflop allins 1v1 with showdown. Difference from expected is now -24.85%

You can find in the log:

1) HH file name
2) my hand vs opponent's one
3) WIN/LOSE (how the hand evolved after the board)
4) Number of chips in the pot
5) % of winning the hand preflop
6) % of split

I checked many times that data. And it seems all correct. I compared with result given by many commercial software. It perfectly matches.
To obtain the %WIN/SPLIT I enumerate all possible boards so it is an exact result.
So
a) Luckometer seems to me to work correctly, please check the number by yourself.
b) I'm not lying, in the file there are the hand Tournament numbers too, you can match with what I played on sharkscope.
If authorized by pokerstars I can share with you the complete hand histories. It's not a problem for me. I think that you can exclude #2 after that.
c) I'm trying to find out it.

Link for log is
http://www.sngoev.com/processed.log
NB Luckometer is temporary not available for download because of some problems in installation package, but if you want to try I can send a no-install copy.
The thing I really can't understand is how a polite question become source of all this [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Cheers
SJ

[Lori]

I'm afraid that no matter how good your intentions, I'm not going to be downloading something at random from a forum post.

All I can suggest is that maybe you're not taking into account hands where you didn't see opponents cards or something. I'd spend significant time assuming you've made an error before assuming you're that unlucky. After you fail to find an error by looking hard, then go back to assuming you're unlucky and playing like before.

<font color="white"> Lori </font>

[Lori]

It's also possible you lost several huge pots, which would bring you back into the realms of the realistic by lowering the sample size.

You should probably try the same thing for pots over 6000 chips or something.

[SongheJe]

[ QUOTE ]
It's also possible you lost several huge pots, which would bring you back into the realms of the realistic by lowering the sample size.

You should probably try the same thing for pots over 6000 chips or something.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can set the upper size and it's 13.500. I consider all 9-handed sit &amp; goes possible allins. So average pot is about 1600 chips in this sample.
However, the correct thing would be to evaluate the ICM and not the chips, and it's my intention to implement it.
For now I have the data just on chips.

[Lori]

What I mean is that your sample could be:

270 small pots: break even
70 large pots: lose lots

in that example, you haven't really had 340 hands of bad luck, just 70.
Averaging it doesn't work because it inflates the sample size and makes you look like you've had a sustained bad run (assuming the guess that you've run bad in big pots is corret), rather than just a 'standard' bad run.

Edit: ICM would still carry the same problem that some hands will be more important than others.

[mb6tour]

I like this thread

[SongheJe]

Lori,
I added a function in luckometer.
Now I have the win/lost/split pot data.
In this thread and on probability section (the place where I had to post this, my fault..) people told me about Binomial Probabilities.
I just needed these two words, no more.
However, I runned luckometer again adding games I played meanwhile.
I had 381 allins.
-24.99% was difference in chips.
145 won, 225 lost, 11 split.
I was on edge &gt;50% of times. So, I can consider it as a coin flip with 150/231 results.
So, probability for this to happen is
<font color="red">1 ON 51,191</font>
If I don't do mistakes on calculating this I can tell I WAS UNLUCKY.
If I did mistakes in this, please let me know, we are persons and here to discuss, not to insult.
1 on 51,191 means it's not impossible, but that someone can experience this. Experiencing this and being considered an idiot make me thinking world is really sad.
Finally, I apologize if my english disturb someone. But, it's not my language. If I say something that is not understandable, you can simply tell me. Perhaps my bad english made me post in wrong forum's section. Bad Beat and Variance seemed to me attinent to my question. Sincerely I don't know what the word 'Brags' is.
For people asking about challenge, move to the heads up section's thread.

[SongheJe]

It is a text file, if you want I can send you via email, via PM if enough lines are allowed.
I just checked all the data you talked about
The file is in the form (here a sample)
HH20071124 T68152915 No Limit Hold'em $25 + $2.txt
Qd 5s vs Kc Jc WIN 4290 WIN : 32.4795129836758% SPLIT : 0.653330249768733
6h As vs 7c 9c LOSE 2000 WIN : 53.3150655491081% SPLIT : 0.379488688924397
8c 8h vs Kh Kc LOSE 5780 WIN : 18.2313420981321% SPLIT : 0.461133069828722
And analisys is one only when I have both opponents cards and a showdown after a 1v1 allin preflop.
It's the simpler situation.
Yes, sure, I must go back playing thinking of having been unlucky. But, see , I experienced this 'run' one, two, three times... and the first ones I did exactly what you are telling.
Results are these. And now I have to be called moron sucker fish tilter , LIER, etc etc..
However, I started asking a numeric value, didn't intend to complain also if, after a day like this, complaining a little should be acceptable. But I do it with my friends drinking a beer at the pub, not here.
Thanks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Lori]

Filter out pots under 6000 and see if that's where the majority of your losses are. If you lost 100k chips on 70 hands of 6000, that's probably just 'normal' bad luck.