UFC 78, TUF 6 Finale, UFC 79

[Viscant]

Only action I've got is Thiago Silva at +130.

Ed Herman at -140 against Doerksen who hasn't looked good lately and is taking the fight on short notice is tempting. I hear nothing but good things about how Ed is training better than ever before, but I just couldn't put the money down. Plus rooting for Ed Herman in a fight would just make me feel a little nauseous inside.

Lines for this event have been mostly reasonable. Only one with significant value IMO is Silva/Alexander and I see that as 60/40 in Silva's favor at the max. 50/50 if he chooses to stand and trade with Houston like he claims he's going to.
79 already looks much better from a gambling perspective.


Overeem could be washed up. Check his record, he hasn't had much go his way in a long time. Factor in his legendarily shallow gas tank and the fact that his game feels a little dated these days and he's about where he should be, line wise

[Performify]

Recommended Plays
<ul>
[*]Evans -275 : 2.75u to win 1u
[*]Alexander -155 : 4.65u to win 3u
[*]Doerkson +120 : no action
[*]Karo -345 : 1.72u to win .5u
[*]Fisher +105 : .25u to win .26u
[*]Alves -180 : 1.8u to win 1u
[*]Reinhardt +300 : .15u to win .45u
[*]Aurellio -450 : 2.5u to win .5u
[*]McCrory +200 : .5u to win 1u[/list]
My writeup is live:
Performify's Picks: UFC 78

[Performify]

If Silva stands and trades with Houston you're going to see another one minute fight, with someone giving another shout-out about Nebraska at the end...

IMO this is a terrible matchup for Silva for a lot of reasons, but I'm really curious to engage anyone who's strongly backing Silva in some serious debate. I'd really like to hear why you think Silva will win -- where are his strengths compared to HA, what's his gameplan going to be, etc etc.


-P

[Viscant]

Here are my thoughts about the Silva/Alexander fight.

For one, people overestimate Alexander's striking game. He isn't exactly a crisp, technical boxer. Very few people are in the MMA game, so that's not (necessarily) a huge knock. He tends to flail a bit and that's usually OK because his clinch game is good. I see that as a bad thing in this fight because while in other fights, ending up in the clinch is either a bad thing or somewhat neutral, the clinch is a bad position in this fight.

As a Chute Boxe fighter, I guarantee that Silva is well versed in the clinch. But the thing is that even if he's NOT getting the best of the clinch, if he starts taking the worst of it, it'll simply lead to a takedown, which is where he's clearly the dominant fighter. His ground game is good, Alexander's is not. I think everyone can agree that if this fight hits the mat with Silva on top, Alexander's chances are quite low.

So that's how I see it. The questions the fight have to answer for me are:
1) Will Alexander be able to knock him out with an early rush, or box conservatively enough to avoid a takedown.
2) If no, will Alexander be able to dominate the clinch?
3) Whether 2 is true or not, will he be able to avoid a takedown from the clinch?
4) If taken down, can he avoid being submitted?
5) If this gets into round 2 or 3, will he have anything left?

I see enough 'no's here to make Silva my pick. I respect Houston's game a lot and that's why I wanted to try and get +150 on this, but I think there's still enough edge at +130 to make this worth my bet.

For the sake of fairness my worries are
1) Silva tries to bang with Alexander and like you said, goes to sleep in a minute or two.
2) Silva plays ultra passive and keeps away (which by my estimation basically does Houston's job for him) instead of engaging
3) Silva pulls guard. While it sounds strange that I wouldn't want a BJJ black belt to pull guard, I worry that if he pulls guard and works for an arm or triangle too quickly, Houston will pass him and at the very least win the round (at worst damage him). Silva's top game is worlds better than his bottom game.


That's my thoughts on the fight. I'm curious as to why you like Houston so much in the fight, since I really respect your opinion when it comes to the fight game.

[Performify]

You're making a TON of assumptions about Houston.

You have pretty much two minutes of footage on him.

[ QUOTE ]
people overestimate Alexander's striking game. He isn't exactly a crisp, technical boxer.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, he's not a highly technical boxer. But he's trained by a muay thai world champion. He's got a lot better stand-up than you assume he does, and a lot better technique than you've seen in the two minutes you've seen.

[ QUOTE ]
But the thing is that even if he's NOT getting the best of the clinch, if he starts taking the worst of it, it'll simply lead to a takedown

[/ QUOTE ]

Up against the fence in the clench, how exactly will this lead to a takedown? Silva can't pull guard up against the fence. he won't be able to change levels to go for a leg with Houston controlling his head and throwing inside.

[ QUOTE ]
which is where he's clearly the dominant fighter. His ground game is good, Alexander's is not. I think everyone can agree that if this fight hits the mat with Silva on top, Alexander's chances are quite low.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is where you make serious assumptions about something you have no clue about, unless i seriously underestimate your information sources [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I'm not saying Houston is a BJJ blackbelt. he's not.

But strength, power, athleticism, and really really good wrestling skills combined with approx six months of hard BJJ training from one of the best BJJ coaches in the world... he's got a lot better ground game (especially defensively) than you or anyone else give him a chance.



[ QUOTE ]

5) If this gets into round 2 or 3, will he have anything left?

[/ QUOTE ]

Houston has fantastic cardio. He's one of the most athletic guys in the UFC right now. What do you base his cardio questions on? The fact that he dumped adrenaline AFTER he won his second major UFC fight and was breathing hard in the post-fight interview? Or did he look really gassed after destroying Jardine in a minute? Or Sakara in a minute?

Silva has a highly suspect gas tank. he gassed _hard_ against Drwal early in the second round.

The longer this fight goes, the more it is Houston's advantage.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious as to why you like Houston so much in the fight, since I really respect your opinion when it comes to the fight game.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've been following all of my stuff on Houston over at Junkie (if not, start with my latest Houston Alexander interview and roll back through the previous intereviews which are linked there). I've been inside his training camp, extensively, since UFC 71. I know who he's training with. I know what he's doing inside camp, and how hard he's working. I've seen him on the ground, extensively, working with all-american NCAA wrestlers (not hard to find in Nebraska) and a world-class Jiu Jitsu instructor.

It's all based on inside information, i guess -- but its really obvious (to me) that a lot of people are underestimating Houston. Everyone thinks for whatever reason he's got a suspect gas tank. Everyone thinks he's got no ground game. All based on assumptions because he's tatooed and black, I guess, that he must be a random street brawler.

He's been fighting for a long, long time. He's got a top-tier coaching staff behind him. He's going to answer a lot of questions this weekend, hopefully. I'm very much hoping that his coaching staff is correct and the weakness they belive they've ID'd in Silva will result in the one minute KO again -- because its just going to give me yet another opportunity to likely bet on an underrated Houston Alexander in the future. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

--

Of course, all the positive stuff I've said above -- this is not the lock of the century. If I thought Houston should be a -400 favorite you'd see me putting a WHOLE lot more on it. I do think he's a very good bet around -150, and you can imagine how hard I actually hit the line when it opened around -115.

I probably won't start to buy back on Houston unless I can get Silva around +165 or +170, if that gives you an idea of my estimate of the true value of this line.

[MikeyPatriot]

P,

How do you seen the Chonan/Parisyan fight going?

[dankhank]

i made my first ever ufc bet the other day based on my own capping: houston alexander. i watched silva struggle against a slow, plodding standup fighter in thomas drwal, and then i re-watched houston's fights against jardine and sakara (it didn't take long).

am i wrong, or does alexander have one of the most efficient looking stances in mma? i'm not sure how it is for kicking, but from a punching perspective, dude seems to have his hands, shoulders, and head nicely aligned. i'm not sure how well he moves his head around though - it might not be too hard for an opponent to land one on that big dome.

[List]

I doubt Silva is stuborn enough to stand and trade with Alexander for long. The fight will probably look more like the Drwal fight, where he shot in numerous times, even though he was doing fine in the standup. I don't think his takedowns looked that great, but if Alexander doesn't finish quickly, or have good takedown defense, it's going to the ground, and there's no way Alexander's better there. It's also not that clear he has much of an advantage standing. I would guess it's around 55/45 Silva, though in reality it's much more lopsided for one fighter.

[Viscant]

Yes, I am making some assumptions, but for the most part they're pretty safe.
Like, Thiago on top for example. He's a legit BJJ black belt with great grappling credentials. Do you REALLY think Houston is going to win this fight if Thiago winds up on top of him? I mean, yeah I respect Houston's strength and his wrestling (which is why I don't want Thiago to pull guard), but with Thiago on top, this doesn't end well for Houston. It just doesn't. Yeah, I fully admit I don't know very much about Houston's BJJ skill, but assuming that Thiago's is better is not a stretch. Not even a little bit.

Also questioning Houston's cardio is still pretty valid, IMO. I'm not basing it off of him sucking wind after the Sakara fight (although to be honest that's kind of a red flag), I'm basing it off him not having the experience here yet. I can name you 10+ guys I've met and worked out with personally who have the best gym cardio in the world and still gas repeatedly under fight conditions (like I said, I can name a lot, but the one I'm thinking of right now is Vernon White), so while I understand that you've seen Houston have some great workouts, his in fight cardio is still under review.


I think if we take the names out of this, it becomes a lot closer than you're making it out to be. On paper we have two Muay Thai strikers who fall into clinches because of how they throw. I think the likelihood of a clinch in this fight is very very high and I think we both agree on that (you think that Thiago will be against the fence for sure, I disagree). I think that from this position, the man with the better BJJ has a huge advantage because should the fight end on the ground, Thiago certainly has the advantage, in experience and in credentials, and I think we can both agree on that.

I respect your opinion and a lot of what you said in your post was true. There's a lot I DON'T know about Houston. But from what I DO know about Thiago, I think the assumptions I made are at least fair and lead to this fight being between a 50/50 to 60/40 split, leading to me placing my bet on Thiago.

We'll see tomorrow I suppose and if I'm wrong and Houston completely manhandles Thiago in the clinch or if the fight goes to the ground and Houston overpowers him, then I'll be the first to step up and admit that I was wrong. I just see too many doubts in this fight and too much left to be answered for Houston at this time.

[dlorc]

Just going to post my picks here so I can see how I did.

W * Michael Bisping (205) vs. Rashad Evans (206)
W * Houston Alexander (203) vs. Thiago Silva (204)
NA * Joe Doerksen (185.5) vs. Ed Herman (186)
* Ryo Chonan (169.5) vs. Karo Parisyan (170) W
* Frankie Edgar (154) vs. Spencer Fisher (154.5) W
* Thiago Alves (171) vs. Chris Lytle (170.5) W
W * Joe Lauzon (155) vs. Jason Reinhardt (155)
NA * Marcus Aurelio (156) vs. Luke Caudillo (155.5)
W * Akihiro Gono (169) vs. Tamdan McCrory (170)