The Lay-down that gets you to the WSOP

[seke2]

Well, with the shorty expressing interest in the hand, and you holding JJ, I suspect it's probably appropriate for you to be involved in the hand. Largely because unless someone has an absolute monster preflop, you almost certainly won't have to play for more than 12753 chips, which you can afford to lose and still be in comfortable shape to get a seat. The reward for calling and getting involved for the minimum number of chips is to make sure shorty doesn't win the hand is a WSOP seat for you.

I'd have called or even minraised here. Basically, I don't want to risk more than 12753 chips, and expect that I would check it down with any other player without the nuts if we get all in preflop.

Basically, I think the risk of losing 1/4 of your stack in this spot and still having 10xBB left is worth it, since you may very well help seal your own WSOP seat with a hand as strong as JJ.

[Toro]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, with the shorty expressing interest in the hand, and you holding JJ, I suspect it's probably appropriate for you to be involved in the hand. Largely because unless someone has an absolute monster preflop, you almost certainly won't have to play for more than 12753 chips, which you can afford to lose and still be in comfortable shape to get a seat. The reward for calling and getting involved for the minimum number of chips is to make sure shorty doesn't win the hand is a WSOP seat for you.

I'd have called or even minraised here. Basically, I don't want to risk more than 12753 chips, and expect that I would check it down with any other player without the nuts if we get all in preflop.

Basically, I think the risk of losing 1/4 of your stack in this spot and still having 10xBB left is worth it, since you may very well help seal your own WSOP seat with a hand as strong as JJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Terrible advice. No reason at all to get involved. The only way I play sheriff is if i am one of the big big stacks and I'm against a shorty. Then you're obligated to take him out to end the thing.

[seke2]

Really? Meh, ok. I don't do many sats, guess I have some things to learn.

This seems like a spot where the risk is worth the reward. How are you ever supposed to end the thing if you don't do anything even when you have a very strong hand? I mean, when the shortie gets desperate, SOMEONE has to actually call to knock him out, and when you're the guy with the big hand, how does that not become you? Should Hero fold AA here?

Is the general concept here that you just flat assume that someone else who knows less about late sat strategy (say, like, me) will be willing to make a call and knock someone out before you have to worry about it?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Meh, ok. I don't do many sats, guess I have some things to learn.

This seems like a spot where the risk is worth the reward. How are you ever supposed to end the thing if you don't do anything even when you have a very strong hand? I mean, when the shortie gets desperate, SOMEONE has to actually call to knock him out, and when you're the guy with the big hand, how does that not become you? Should Hero fold AA here?

Is the general concept here that you just flat assume that someone else who knows less about late sat strategy (say, like, me) will be willing to make a call and knock someone out before you have to worry about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I am big on fold your way in. However, here I like flat call and fold if anyone raises. You have the seat locked up by folding. However, if you call, you probably have about a 60% chance of winning the hand and ending it right there. If you lose, you can still fold your way in.

[icemanjmw]

I never play thesee big satellites, so I have a question/comment regarding this hand.
First, we can be almost certain that Papasmurf is going to put in the other 6k to call the all-in. If we know nothing about Papasmurf can we assume that if we just smooth call, he will also call and be willing to check it through to the end to eliminate this last player? If we think he'll be willing to check it down then this becomes a good time to call right?

[The Bear]

[ QUOTE ]
You have the seat locked up by folding. However, if you call, you probably have about a 60% chance of winning the hand and ending it right there. If you lose, you can still fold your way in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, so you have the seat locked up but you still want to play? Are you seriously suggesting that there is something to be gained by hero ending the tourney right there? Every chip counts at this stage, and hero should never risk any of his. Who the [censored] cares if the tourney takes another 15 minutes. Hero is a STONE COLD LOCK unless he's an idiot.

Fold everything. So not close to close.

[dcviperboy]

How about being the big stack in the small blind, MP calls(still with 99), now CO calls as well (still with JJ), still puch with KK assuming you have the best hand and trying to take out 2 ppl for the price of the larger stack???

[fro_dude]

Is it just me or does anyone else think this comes down to straight numbers? With your chip position, you have a better chance of winning a seat by folding AA if you KNOW your opponent has AKo. It just straight percentages...filling your equity with a seat here is 94+%, but in the best showdown possible for you (AA vs. AK) you're less than a 90% favorite. Turn the computer off and cruise to a seat, you have no obligation to knock out a short stack, leave that for someone else. Your highest equity, MATHEMATICALLY is acheived by folding EVERY hand.

[seke2]

Allright, so when I start playing sats more, the fundamental advice for late game play seems to be...

Someone else will screw up, so the proper strategy when you feel you are likely guaranteed a seat is to just not do anything, regardless of the strength of your hand, the stacks of those involved, pot odds, etc.

In order to get involved in a hand, you need a huge pot odds overlay so big that it makes calling completely trivial or a monster stack against a tiny stack where losing the hand does basically nothing to decrease your chances of winning a prize.