a hand vs PA, 200/400 HU

[cowpig]

I think a flop 3bet is really good. I don't see him bluff-4betting, and it's going to be very hard for him to play a hand like TT.

River is ugly because the flush+ is a pretty reasonable part of your range, so I don't know how often he's bluffing. Does he check an overpair on the river? Or the turn? Does he bet smaller on the turn with an overpair? Sucks that basically no lower flushes are in his range and it seem like he either has one of those or a boat. I think it's a fold but I would probably call in practice.

[kafkaFan1]

2 comments

-from your description PA sounds like a superstar HU, hearing talk like that is the sort of thing that makes me change my HU game into a spewy crazy monster.

-not much analysis other than a 6 doesn't seem right. maybe a flush draw he picked up on the turn, or more likely an actual higher flush than yours.

[LerkEr]

there is no way i am folding that.i call

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think your line is perfect and can't see doing anything else on any street. The hand just comes down to call, fold, or push the river. I think pushing is very very thin, so I wouldn't do it - but I definitely wouldn't rule it out from consideration (as a bluff obviously). He check/raises so often on the flop, that I would definitely expect him to check/raise big hands (like trips) on the flop. And probably flush draws, too, although he may be less likely to do that since you have been tricky postflop and may be more likely to pop him up on the flop or turn (and to call a push lightly - he probably knows you're a station, too). So I think his range is weighted more towards made hands and air on the flop than draws. Then his bet on the turn can certainly be a semi-bluff picked up on the turn, or a made hand protecting (or of course a higher flush - but I still think this is a small part of his range). Then on the river, I would think he'd bet a little smaller so that it's easier for you to push if he has a full house. His hand looks a lot more like a bluff following through or a hand like TT or something looking for thin value. I'd call.

[Up-grey-de]

I dont think that a turn raise is the best choice, since Krantz wrote that PA follows through with his entire range very often. I think calling is best here, and let him bet river, unfortunately another 4 hit the board which obv makes it very hard to call, but I still think that I would call river.
Same goes for flop, I like calling here too, since Krantz is just risking 5500 with a lot of outs, and can be pretty certain that PA is going to pay him off on turn if he hits.

[FiSheYe]

Uhm tough situation.
I like the flop play, don't think 3betting there is good without a specific background this deep.
Raising the turn in this scenario could generate an ugly situation, I mean for 100bb this is an easy turn shove but with the given stacksizes we won't get action from worse hands all that often and it's hard to fold against a shove with all the money invested.
If PA's range is really that loose on the turn then raising will get him to fold lots of hands and we deny him to bluff the river again.
On the other hand calling the turn has it's downsides as well, there are lots of cards we don't want to see: 4s (3), Ts (3), 6s (2), any club (8) for a total of 16 cards in the deck that would generate trouble.
He cannot benefit from all these cards so we should considern on the turn how we want to proceed on the river if PA bets almost all of these cards.

Krantz you said he defends his BB a lot pf but doesn't 3bet that much so does that mean he would mix it up with hands like JJ+ some of the time? Is 77 a call for him most of the time ?
I am trying to generate a handrange that is reasonable for the given scenario.
I think it's fair to assume the turn doesn't change anything
so there are 66644 and 44466 + higher flushs to worry about.
I assume he would play all of these hands the same way and we cannot read anything into the bet amounts and his line but I think it's fair to assume he doesn't have a worse flush in this spot..
Any assumptions how he would play with 77+ and air in that spot ?
We're getting 2,1:1 / need ~32,5% equity so it's very tempting to call if he really has such a wide range in those spots.
From his perspective Would you play TT, 6x, 4X and a flush the same way and could you fold 77+ / flush in this spot often enough ?
To make it short, is his loose range loose enough to bluff here 1/3 of the time or more ?
If he thinks you fold out small flushs and pairs 77+ this should be a call even tho it's very thin.

Obviously raising is another option but I cannot estimate how many better hands he would fold on the river and how he perceives you and your lines, so I cannot comment on that.

PS: just saw Krantz second post and I tend more to calling, if he thinks we don't have the flush all to often because he
cannot expect us to call 77+ all that often and he doesn't need to be correct all too often with this read to follow the river with a bluff.
The way you explained the hand it's very hard to argue for a fold, hope this is an objective description of the scenario, otherwise this is getting nowhere.

[ArmenH]

Him checking this river would scare me alot more than his lead.

[n2p]

[ QUOTE ]
Him checking this river would scare me alot more than his lead.

[/ QUOTE ]

what??

[MDMA]

Huk, I think the fact we have a flush is something thats put too much emphasis on. We could just as well have a pair here, granted he wouldn't slowplay preflop AA-JJ and play it this strong. I guess JJ is reasonble given PF, but does he really bet that this big, I somewhat doubt that. So, just treat our hand as AcTx or so and decide whether we still want to call, fact is, we have lots of stronger hands in our range at this point, thus I can see no real reason to call with the low flush here, unless his bluffing frequnecies is really fundamentally flawed, but basically I doubt this is a preferred bluffing card for him given a 4 is actually atleast a decent part of your range.

Also, furthermore, I think him having a 4 except 44 or 64 is pretty much never happening either.

Edit: We'll I guess we beat 23cc and 73cc and with it being PA, he can probably have those, but that is so marginally better than a pure bluffcatcher that I don't really think it makes enough of a difference. It would make a difference if we have very, very few hands better than bluffcatchers, but that is not the case.

[Requin]

Pretty easy to be on the wrong level here but yeah I don't think he'd put you on a flush very often, alot of people would raise the turn with a flush given the history of you bluff-raising a flush-completing turn. Probably wasn't a paired board in that hand but still, sounds like paired boards should be given less consideration than usual in this matchup. So I like your turn call alot.

On the river, even though its so tough for him to be valuebetting worse I think I'd go with the hand. Disagree with you MDMA, even though we might have stronger hands in our range I think this is still at the very high end. We have flush-blockers which make up a decent part of the range he's representing, and like you said beat a couple of hands he could be v-betting. Simplistic thinking but I would guess it's a close decision and that, barring any 'feel', letting this flush-blocker factor decide it is fine.