2007-2008 CBB mechanical Home small faves System

[dankhank]

cfla -3.5 loss vs nevada
niowa -4 win vs umass
loyala -4.5 win vs penn
ohio -4 win vs nmsu
ucsb -4.5 win vs nwsu
creigh -3 win vs depaul
tulane -2.5 win vs auburn

6-1 results in subset games played so far (based only on closing lines)

[hedgie43]

What's the reasoning behind this one? HCA under-adjusted for in close games?

[jhennis]

Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?

[MyTurn2Raise]

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Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?

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the refs get more involved as well....maybe as a by-product

[NajdorfDefense]

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Or maybe in a close game the crowd will get involved more?

[/ QUOTE ]
the refs get more involved as well....maybe as a by-product

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Travel, never having played in the gym before - is it a bandbox, dead floors, bad shooting gym, etc, may not be able to get game tape by early Nov,...
UVa plays at NC every year, so seniors have 3-4 games experience and know some of the quirks of gym, other players/coaches, etc.
Clemson rarely plays OOC at, say, Gonzaga. Okla at StJohn's, Wisky at Miami, off-court distractions may also play a role.

I think the refs have a noticeable impact in a tight, 2-pt game with <1 min left and you have Big 10 refs not wanting to hurt Mich St at home v SoIll, LDO.

As mentioned elsewhere, LINE SHOPPING IS KEY, don't take -3 when -2.5 [or -2] is widely available!

[jhennis]

yeah, waiting for loyola to move off of a PK to -1 is smart...

[NajdorfDefense]

You can bet whatever you want, for a mechanical system there are pre-established rules that govern which games qualify and which do not.
Maybe you can start a 'home faves that became home dogs by tipoff' system and track the results? I'd be interested in seeing it.

edit: If line moves from -2 to +3 due to injury, that's not a game I want, one reason not in the CBB System...LDO