Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB

[nextgenneo]

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fwiw i have this guy a lot nittier than 24/19, over 2k hands

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what have you got him at?

[rand]

im cf this hand on every street unless i hit the nuts

[Barrin6]

Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]
EV= 68.37+ -745.62
EV= -677.25

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-677.25)(1-x)

0=358x-677.25+677.25x
0=1035x-677.25
677.25=1035x
x=65%

[rand]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]
EV= 68.37+ -745.62
EV= -677.25

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-677.25)(1-x)

0=358x-677.25+677.25x
0=1035x-677.25
677.25=1035x
x=65%

[/ QUOTE ]

looks good conceptually and i assume you can work a calculator...

[tecate]

i agree its reallll fishy to just call pre. maybe he's floating the 4bet to bet the turn if the flop checks through...i've done that once and seen it from a couple other tag/lag villain's, though it's def FPS.

anyway, i doubt he even folds JJ to a push here. so I either c/f all the way, or maybe check flop and call on a turn card under T.

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]

[/ QUOTE ]

This part is off - hero wins 8.4% of 814 when called, but when he calls and loses it is (91.6%)x(-228) which is the cost of hero's bluff. This changes the ultimate answer pretty drastically:

EV= 68.37+ -208.85
EV= -140.478

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-140.478)(1-x)

0=358x-140.478+140.478x
0=498.478x - 140.478
140.478 = 498.478x
x = 28.18%

I would venture that there is a >28% chance that villain has called a hand that is not AA/KK that will fold, either a poorly played QQ/JJ or some shenanigans that shouldn't have seen a flop, so I would shove. It doesn't necessarily matter if the hand that folds is AQ-esque, since we cannot call a bet so we are just taking the right of first bluff.

Surf

[Barrin6]

Thanks for clearing that up for me. Was wondering why the FE was so high.

So isn't it clear that we should shove here? It's such good bluffing odds especially even on this board.

[FionnMac]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
fwiw i have this guy a lot nittier than 24/19, over 2k hands

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what have you got him at?

[/ QUOTE ]

18/14

[ipokeder]

check flop check turn shove river

[pp262]

shove pre, as played check behind and hope to spike a 9.