*** OFFICIAL 11/11/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***

[Machmood]

Everyone seems agree that detroit it about a half point/point favorite to Zona, yet people are taking AZ when Lions are as high as 1.5 dog at some books, doesnt make any sense. Anyway here are my picks for this week.....

Lions +1.5 -110
Indy- 3.5 +110 (THATS RIGHT!!)
Dallas -1 -110

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone seems agree that detroit it about a half point/point favorite to Zona, yet people are taking AZ when Lions are as high as 1.5 dog at some books, doesnt make any sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Detroit is .5-1 point favorite on a neutral field. But the game's in Arizona.

I'm thinking about betting the over in this game as well. Both teams can pass. Neither team can run (though Detroit has done better as of late). Both teams can defend the run, but neither team can defend the pass. This game should be an air show.

Thoughts?

[kyro]

Went ahead and add 1u on Det/Ari Over 45.0

Both Detroit and Arizona are:

1) Scoring more than their opponents are giving up in their other games

2) Giving up more than their opponents are scoring in their other games.

Arizona's last three totals have been 35/40/27, but that was WITH Rattay against a low scoring Carolina squad, against Washington who is all D, no O, and against Tampa, who despite having an efficient offense, doesn't put up many points, as well as having a good defense. Interestingly enough, Arizona's 3 highest totals of the year came in games they won, for whatever that's worth.

Detroit's last 4 totals have been 37/39/23/51, but once again, the first three were against Washington and Tampa (recognize a trend?), and a fluky low-scoring game against Chicago, (against who they had a total of 74 earlier in the year).

The line reflects a slightly above-average scoring game. But we have two averagish offenses who love to pass against below averagish defenses who can't stop the pass. I expect the total to be somewhere in the low-mid 50s.

[TooTallT]

Line STILL moving toward Arizona (-1 -113 now on Pinny) despite huge Lions public bias.

[kyro]

It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[kyro]

Anyone have opinions on Dal/NYG 49.0?

Dallas is averaging 33+ per game.
Giants averaging 25 per game.

They both are giving up around the average.

The only thing that is making me wary with this line is DVOA has Dallas as 4th in weighted defense, and the Giants at 8th. I must have missed the memo that these two teams were powerhouses on the OTHER side of the ball as well.

Any opinions?

[TooTallT]

[ QUOTE ]
It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, everywhere that opened after the sharps pounded it.

Pinny:
11/04/2007 9:28PM: -1 -104 / +1 -104 Opener
11/05/2007 10:49AM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 11:03AM: +1 +108 / -1 -116
11/05/2007 4:58PM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 6:43PM: +1 +103 / -1 -111
11/05/2007 6:58PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113
11/06/2007 1:44PM: +1 +101 / -1 -109
11/06/2007 1:46PM: +1 +102 / -1 -110
11/08/2007 2:17PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113

Detroit +1 top play on Wagerline (79%). Line basically the same spot it was on Monday morning. There's no question where the Pinny lean is in this game.

[Machmood]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, everywhere that opened after the sharps pounded it.

Pinny:
11/04/2007 9:28PM: -1 -104 / +1 -104 Opener
11/05/2007 10:49AM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 11:03AM: +1 +108 / -1 -116
11/05/2007 4:58PM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 6:43PM: +1 +103 / -1 -111
11/05/2007 6:58PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113
11/06/2007 1:44PM: +1 +101 / -1 -109
11/06/2007 1:46PM: +1 +102 / -1 -110
11/08/2007 2:17PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113

Detroit +1 top play on Wagerline (79%). Line basically the same spot it was on Monday morning. There's no question where the Pinny lean is in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

im an idiot, so your saying the Smart money is on......

[kyro]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It opened at -1 at most places I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, everywhere that opened after the sharps pounded it.

Pinny:
11/04/2007 9:28PM: -1 -104 / +1 -104 Opener
11/05/2007 10:49AM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 11:03AM: +1 +108 / -1 -116
11/05/2007 4:58PM: +1 +106 / -1 -114
11/05/2007 6:43PM: +1 +103 / -1 -111
11/05/2007 6:58PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113
11/06/2007 1:44PM: +1 +101 / -1 -109
11/06/2007 1:46PM: +1 +102 / -1 -110
11/08/2007 2:17PM: +1 +105 / -1 -113

Detroit +1 top play on Wagerline (79%). Line basically the same spot it was on Monday morning. There's no question where the Pinny lean is in this game.

[/ QUOTE ]

im an idiot, so your saying the Smart money is on......

[/ QUOTE ]

lol. terrible minds think alike.

[siccjay]

I guess the square side of me is taking over for this game. I like DET +1 a lot. The over also sounds really good. The only thing I am worried about is Kitna getting sacked A LOT in this one.