thoughts on 3betting when you have 30-50bbs

[Todd Terry]

Great posts by LearnedFromTV and sheets, coming to opposite conclusions.

If you call here, I think you are calling with the primary objective of bluffing your opponent out of the hand later on. There are 3 ways for you to win if you flat: hit a set, win a river showdown UI, or get your opponent to fold a better hand. Hitting a set is happening 12% of the time on the flop, 18% if you get to the river. Winning a river showdown unimproved is happening very rarely -- it would almost have to go c-bet, call; check, check; check, check. Thus, for flatting to be +cEV, you're going to have to turn your hand into a bluff a significant % of the time. IMO you're not deep enough to do that profitably enough. Additionally, since he's opening so wide, the odds of winning a huge hand if you hit a set are low, because he's extremely unlikely to have a hand he'll stack off with.

By 3betting pre, you're basically turning your hand into a bluff, which is only going to be +cEV if Villain is opening wide but calling/shoving narrow, which if he's opening 25% of hands he very well may be. Or as Sheets pointed out if he's calling/shoving very wide, in which case you might want to bet/call, but it's a seriously risky, marginal play. You also have a couple people behind you to worry about.

If you knew the table was breaking on the next hand, I think the max cEV play is to fold pre. If you're looking to slow down Villain, which I think is long-term +$EV, I think 3betting > flatting, because you're going to have to fold a lot of flops if you flat.