Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > General Poker Discussion > Beginners Questions

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 10-28-2007, 02:29 AM
raze raze is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,561
Default Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?

Fold. Even if you're up against just a flush draw and just a straight draw + small pair for example, you're in a breakeven spot.




Board: 7c 6c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.773% 34.51% 00.26% 16830 126.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 34.551% 34.29% 00.26% 16722 126.00 { QcJc }
Hand 2: 30.676% 30.42% 00.26% 14832 126.00 { 97o }


You will also be dead against a set, or behind to two-pair a lot of the time.
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 10-28-2007, 05:41 PM
Paul2432 Paul2432 is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Bryn Mawr, PA USA
Posts: 1,458
Default Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. Even if you're up against just a flush draw and just a straight draw + small pair for example, you're in a breakeven spot.




Board: 7c 6c 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.773% 34.51% 00.26% 16830 126.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 34.551% 34.29% 00.26% 16722 126.00 { QcJc }
Hand 2: 30.676% 30.42% 00.26% 14832 126.00 { 97o }




[/ QUOTE ]

This is not a break even spot. There is already money in the pot so you would have an overlay. Also, you might lose to the short stack, but beat the larger stack, and get most of your money back.

Paul
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 10-28-2007, 05:56 PM
raze raze is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 2,561
Default Re: Do you have the balls to fold AA?

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a break even spot. There is already money in the pot so you would have an overlay. Also, you might lose to the short stack, but beat the larger stack, and get most of your money back.

Paul

[/ QUOTE ]

It's true, my example oversimplifies the situation. However, my point is that in a best case scenario we are a slight favourite (unless we're against say two overpairs, but this is much, much more rare than the dozens of spots against draws and better hands OP could be in, similar to the one I demonstrated).

At best, we are a slight favourite plus a small overlay. At worst, we are 4% to win the pot from the flop. Our expectation for a flop call lies somewhere between slight favourite and huge underdog IMO.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:24 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2026, vBulletin Solutions Inc.