25NL - Tough flop decision, even with AA?

[bored]

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Bored, I think your ranges are far too loose. You can't put J9s, T9s, QT, QJ, etc. into his raising range without a decent read, let alone into an unknown's. It's also a bad idea to wait for the turn to blank before getting it in: Everything that was beating you is still beating you, you're less likely to get it in ahead (as in villain will call tighter with only one card to come), and you lose a ton when the turn isn't a blank.

I probably 3-bet to ~14$ and fold to a shove, but I'm not totally sure. Folding seems really weak/tight but can't be too bad as your RIO here is through the roof. I definitely don't call, though.

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What do you think BTN is calling a raise with preflop? I think a pair+GS is reasonable for an unknown to put a weak raise in like this.

[Movelong]

with the raise on board like this u would be dead with AA

[Movelong]

wy ur guys dont put him on the ranges 99,kk,qq, kqs,aks.U got 25.470% and he got74.530% equity.

[monkeymaps]

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wy ur guys dont put him on the ranges 99,kk,qq, kqs,aks.U got 25.470% and he got74.530% equity.

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????

discount KK and QQ cause no 3 bet pre
99 and KQ and JT are the three hands you have to worry about here.
I prob dont fold this flop but 3bet/push is pretty gross. prolly call flop and either c/r a safe turn or if villan bets huge on the turn I might just fold.

[kurto]

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discount KK and QQ cause no 3 bet pre

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You know.. I hate when people say this when discussing a player with no reads. Just because decent and aggressive players reraise these hands here doesn't mean that you should assume all or even most players would.

This is a $25 dollar table. These tables are filled with passive players who never 3 bet. Or the 'tricky' people who smoothcall AA or KK.

I know I look for these players but, seriously, I'm sitting down with people who have stats like 65/1/3 or 75/0/.8 EVERY NIGHT. These players never 3 bet.

Regarding the actual hand- I think this is a pretty damn scary board for AA. And since he raised UTG, any player who's not braindead is going to realize that that flop is bound to have hit a lot of his raising range. The fact that he's getting raised despite all this information would lead me to indicate 1 pair is very likely NOT good.

[monkeymaps]

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discount KK and QQ cause no 3 bet pre

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You know.. I hate when people say this when discussing a player with no reads. Just because decent and aggressive players reraise these hands here doesn't mean that you should assume all or even most players would.

This is a $25 dollar table. These tables are filled with passive players who never 3 bet. Or the 'tricky' people who smoothcall AA or KK.

I know I look for these players but, seriously, I'm sitting down with people who have stats like 65/1/3 or 75/0/.8 EVERY NIGHT. These players never 3 bet.

Regarding the actual hand- I think this is a pretty damn scary board for AA. And since he raised UTG, any player who's not braindead is going to realize that that flop is bound to have hit a lot of his raising range. The fact that he's getting raised despite all this information would lead me to indicate 1 pair is very likely NOT good.

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im not saying he NEVER has KK or QQ but id assume he is more likely to have 99 or KQ than either of those hands that cant be that far off?

[kurto]

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im not saying he NEVER has KK or QQ but id assume he is more likely to have 99 or KQ than either of those hands that cant be that far off?

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Oh, I agree. KQ and even K9 (we have no read... I always assume someone's more likely an idiot then not until I have some stats or developed a read) I'm not saying KK or QQ are likely, I just hate to see them completely discounted.

I think what is clear is that 1 pair is quite often NOT good here unless we know that the player is a complete donkey.

[JoseRijo]

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What do you think BTN is calling a raise with preflop? I think a pair+GS is reasonable for an unknown to put a weak raise in like this.

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I didn't think his pot-sized raise looked weak, since the default raise at 10NL and 25NL seems to be a min-raise. It did seem like he was tempting a call, though.