UFC 77 Discussion thread

[Viscant]

Re: Storm, I don't really call it running away or timing out...I prefer rushing down in reverse. Always random finding SF/Marvel people here.

Anyways, I think everything you said is valid. There is a percent of the time that Anderson can win with a homerun strike or sub in the later rounds but it's pretty low. Off the top of my head and without consulting fight finder I can't think of any fight of Anderson's in a major org that he's finished that hasn't been first or 2nd round. His gas tank is notoriously shallow, so it would have to be a real miracle for him to have enough left to stop Rich. Like I said earlier though, I'm not betting this one and I'm just a big time Rich fan, so whatever, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.

While you're 100% right about AA doing significant damage with leg kicks in their 3rd fight, it stands to reason that Tim was already starting to feel his back problems by that point in his career. Too often, people use the steroids as the official demarcation point in Tim Sylvia's career. While that undeniably played a factor, it was only when his back started bothering him and kept getting repeated injuries that he became a decision fighter. It's impossible to put power on a right hand (especially if you have to lunge any, like off checking a leg kick) if you have any kind of back problems and as you'll notice, after the Assuerio Silva fight, he only threw a handful of right hands with any kind of bad intention on them for the next couple of years.

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the Miletich kool-aid but I believe it when people were telling me how bad Tim's back was during AA#3 and the Monson fight (to say nothing about how bad it was by the time Randy got a hold of him), so I think the old Tim has a really good shot of coming back in this fight. I don't think we even NEED the old Tim since the boring jab, jab, circle style would be enough to frustrate Vera, who really doesn't deal with that very well.

I suppose we'll see tomorrow, but I'm really confident in Tim in this one. I just don't see any scenario where Vera gets him into significant danger.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
Re: Storm, I don't really call it running away or timing out...I prefer rushing down in reverse. Always random finding SF/Marvel people here.

Anyways, I think everything you said is valid. There is a percent of the time that Anderson can win with a homerun strike or sub in the later rounds but it's pretty low. Off the top of my head and without consulting fight finder I can't think of any fight of Anderson's in a major org that he's finished that hasn't been first or 2nd round. His gas tank is notoriously shallow, so it would have to be a real miracle for him to have enough left to stop Rich. Like I said earlier though, I'm not betting this one and I'm just a big time Rich fan, so whatever, maybe I'm just being too hopeful.

While you're 100% right about AA doing significant damage with leg kicks in their 3rd fight, it stands to reason that Tim was already starting to feel his back problems by that point in his career. Too often, people use the steroids as the official demarcation point in Tim Sylvia's career. While that undeniably played a factor, it was only when his back started bothering him and kept getting repeated injuries that he became a decision fighter. It's impossible to put power on a right hand (especially if you have to lunge any, like off checking a leg kick) if you have any kind of back problems and as you'll notice, after the Assuerio Silva fight, he only threw a handful of right hands with any kind of bad intention on them for the next couple of years.

I dunno, maybe I'm just drinking the Miletich kool-aid but I believe it when people were telling me how bad Tim's back was during AA#3 and the Monson fight (to say nothing about how bad it was by the time Randy got a hold of him), so I think the old Tim has a really good shot of coming back in this fight. I don't think we even NEED the old Tim since the boring jab, jab, circle style would be enough to frustrate Vera, who really doesn't deal with that very well.

I suppose we'll see tomorrow, but I'm really confident in Tim in this one. I just don't see any scenario where Vera gets him into significant danger.

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I'm just curious, @ what point woould you start arbing your action? Vera +120?

[apple11]

I'm just curious, @ what point woould you start arbing your action? Vera +120?

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Where is vera +120 ill take that line

[Viscant]

+120 is far too low for me to consider arbing this since I feel so strongly that Tim has this one. I might start thinking about it at the +175-+200 range, but even then that would ONLY be because I'm one of the biggest nits to walk the earth and not because of any doubt in how I see this fight going down.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
+120 is far too low for me to consider arbing this since I feel so strongly that Tim has this one. I might start thinking about it at the +175-+200 range, but even then that would ONLY be because I'm one of the biggest nits to walk the earth and not because of any doubt in how I see this fight going down.

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Well I would only arb if both sides were +EV IMO and I guess i was asking you what you'd set the line at, but your response indicates you would arb before you thought there was PURE EV in the line(arb for risk aversion/guaranteed payout).

So basically you think Sylvia should be a -210 favorite if the line were set properly?

[Viscant]

I think somewhere in that range is accurate. As much as I've talked up Sylvia and as much as I think he's going to win this one easily, we are still talking about a guy coming off back surgery. Everyone is SAYING everything went swimmingly, but you can't realistically go beyond that on a man coming off major surgery. Once you start moving past that number, one would be inclined to bet Vera just on the chance that Tim's health might still be in question.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
I think somewhere in that range is accurate. As much as I've talked up Sylvia and as much as I think he's going to win this one easily, we are still talking about a guy coming off back surgery. Everyone is SAYING everything went swimmingly, but you can't realistically go beyond that on a man coming off major surgery. Once you start moving past that number, one would be inclined to bet Vera just on the chance that Tim's health might still be in question.

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last time I got +160-+175 on what I perceived to be a 68% favorite, I bet 49.71% of my life on it.