live misclick v. thetakeover 25/50 nl LIVE, 300bb deep...

[ceczar]

if we assume nick is always making really good higher level decisions, then i think we have to check the flop, but the reality is that he's going to be betting most of the time with hands that beat you, even if checking that flop with those hands would have been the right move. people are also underestimating how wide your range is and btn's range. the RR is just for 5% of stacks. i think it's the case of posters piling on and engaging in a bit of groupthink. the smallish bet is obviously bad if you don't know how often it will induce a bluff raise. i think a 2k bet is still the best play. this hand does not get easier if the flop is checked, similarly if btn bets, which i think is likely with a large part of his range.

given what's happened so far, if we're committed i think call and call/push the turn is far far better than pushing the flop. i haven't played enough with nick to know how often he'd be making a move here. i don't think he'd try to get you to fold JJ/QQ here in this game, so i don't believe your hand is as obvious as people seem to think it is, especially given your weird bet.