NL 100 Easy Value Shove With QQ?

[Pokey]

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Set raises somewhere in there,


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O RLY?

Villain is 32/6/.4 (47)

First off, we've got less than 50 hands on villain: that's not a read, it's a handshake. Second, from what little we've seen of him, he wouldn't know the "raise" button from a bread basket. Face it -- we've got no clue about villain's hand: don't trick yourself into thinking that you know hero's ahead or some such nonsense.

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board pairs so you're safe to random ass twopair,


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Actually, if villain had two pair on the turn there are 45 different ways that could have happened, and eighteen of them give villain a full house. If villain has a 2-in-5 chance that he filled up, and that's not exactly "safe" from two pairs.

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I jam this in all day every day esp w/ pot size to stack size


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So villain calls a pot-sized raise with AT? Yeah, OK, I'll buy that if he's the idiot that his numbers indicate, but my read is way too thin for that. I'd probably make it $30 -- a roughly half-pot sized bet. Obviously I'm calling a push, but I'd like to maximize my chance of getting paid off by a weaker hand.

Personally, I wouldn't have bet so strongly on the flop or turn -- you've got nothing to protect against and you have no solid evidence that villain calls down light. Plus you've got one freakin' pair -- it's not the nuts. I'd probably make a standard c-bet of $6, then $14 or so on the turn (2/3rds) and half-pot on the river. If villain raises somewhere, I'm strongly considering folding or at LEAST shutting down.