**** ALDS GAME 4 Tribe/Yanks (Byrd vs. Wang)****

[iron81]

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If the Yankees are losing by one late in the game tonight, maybe we will see a field full of rabid squirels swoop down from the foul poles. I assume the umps won't hold up the game since they are nothing more than a distraction.

[/ QUOTE ]
The one time I was at a game with a squirrel running around in the outfield, they stopped the game to get rid of it. If there are multiple squirrels and they are rabid, I think it would be safe to say the game would be stopped.

It was kind of awesome actually, the fans were chanting "squirrel, squirrel".

[tolbiny]

What is the average deviation for pitchers appearing on three days rest? This info has to be out there somewhere.

[vhawk01]

So, do most people think that CC on short rest is actually better than Byrd for tonights game? And if that isn't the case, why isn't it a no-brainer to go with Byrd? If you are worried about Carmona not getting in there, you could always skip CC for game 5 and pitch Carmona, or have them both up and ready, or some other crazy thing. I know that isn't going to play well in the media, but putting your best possible option into each game has to be the optimal solution, right? So if Byrd>CC and CC>Carmona(Game 5) then why isn't that optimal?

[zer0]

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So if Byrd>CC and CC>Carmona(Game 5) then why isn't that optimal?

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because cc/carmona > byrd/cc?

[Thremp]

Because winning tonight's game may not be optimal for winning a WS? And perhaps most managers are retarded?

[vhawk01]

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Because winning tonight's game may not be optimal for winning a WS? And perhaps most managers are retarded?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, THAT I can see. If we are taking into consideration the ALCS, then fine, more complicated analysis makes sense and we can get some weird results. But taking the ALDS in a vacuum, I don't see how it can make sense to start CC is Byrd is better.

[34TheTruth34]

Pitching Byrd today isn't horrible because the Indians only have to win one game. If they were down 2-1 here, they would pitch CC short tonight and Fausto game 5 obv.

Absolute worst case scenario tonight for the Indians: Byrd goes out and gets shelled immediately. OK, that's fine, rest the rest of your staff and come back game 5 with CC, Fausto, and the Rafaels, all of whom will be well rested.

Plus, Byrd may actually go out and win tonight. If he does that, then they are really set up for the ALCS and could pitch the big two 5 times in 7 games.

So like I was saying earlier: pitching CC tonight gives them the best chance to win a game (and both games), while pitching Byrd tonight gives them the best chance to win game 5. And all they have to do is win one.

[EMc]

BTW who else is going tonihgt?

[Hollywade]

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Pitching Byrd today isn't horrible because the Indians only have to win one game. If they were down 2-1 here, they would pitch CC short tonight and Fausto game 5 obv.

[/ QUOTE ]

This makes sense, but I still would like to see Wedge go for the jugular here.

[vhawk01]

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So if Byrd>CC and CC>Carmona(Game 5) then why isn't that optimal?

[/ QUOTE ]

because cc/carmona > byrd/cc?

[/ QUOTE ]

How can that be the case though? If Byrd>CC, then that means that Carmona must be >>CC. So why don't you just start him in Game 5?

What you are basically saying is use up CC so that you don't have any excuse not to play Carmona in Game 5. Take the -EV so that you don't have to tell the fat kid he can't play on Wednesday.