AP .25/.50 - turn bet less than expected, what to do?

[alex-star]

UTG is a huge fish, but if he has a Q - he is not folding. So I am checking the flop to induce either a bluff, or some weak bet. Now here comes what's clearly a weak block bet. How much can I bet here?


Absolute Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $26.10
UTG+1: $191.95
MP1: $17.35
MP2: $59.35
Hero: $29.80
Button: $21.10
SB: $43.15
BB: $95.40

Pre-flop: (8 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $3</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP1 folds.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($7.25, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($7.25, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">UTG bets $1</font>, Hero ??

[Panthro]

7ish, fold to a shove, probably check river unless he's really really bad.

[CesareBorgia]

I would raise to about $7. If he calls I would fold to a substantial bet on the river. If he checks to you on the river, I would just check behind him. Or do you think he's capable of calling your raise on the turn and then calling a river bet with a pair of fours?

[alex-star]

But if I do that... i'd put about 42% of my stack into the pot. Shouldn't I be committed to shove any river at point given that my SPR is good against my opponents range?

[KurtSF]

Bet the flop, eh?

I know he's not folding with a Q, but his range is way bigger than that. You are ahead of a fishes' limp-call range on that flop. Bet.

As played, why not keep up the ruse? Call the turn and then either bet or raise the river.... If you take the trappy line that would get you more value than raising turn, right? The fish will want to show his hand down, better chance to get a call on the river.