KQ to river flush scare...good or bad play?

[willyc]

This is always a tough spot on the turn because against someone with stats like that you don't know if he has Ace rag, or if he called preflop with some suited trash and picked up a flush draw.

He's not folding to a second barrel in either case, and when he calls we don't really get any information. However, it is roughly twice as likely that he has an ace than he has two clubs. I would probably just shut down here and check behind on the turn, and wait for a better spot to get this guy's chips.

The river card is unfortunate and the donk bet is even worse, because this almost always means a made flush. Not many players at this level are good enough to represent a flush draw for the whole hand and bet out on the river when the flush comes in - and if he just had an ace he would be afraid of that card and probably just check / call a small bet - so I'm pretty sure you're beat.

However, you're getting about 2:1 to call, so you have to be right 1/3 of the time, which is alright. I agree that you have to make a crying call here as played.