Oops I got CR'd... what now?

[DJ Sensei]

on a board like this we can definitely expect him to put in more chips on the turn when behind, way moreso than say an A82r board. Precisely because he can put us on a draw or a weaker ace and valuebet worse hands or try to bluff us with the second barrel. Or if an obvious draw gets there on the turn, he can continue bluffing when he has some other draw or air. Air certainly makes up a reasonable part of a 22/18's range here, though some sort of semibluff is probably much more likely. but if he's semibluffing the OESD and the flush comes in, he's very likely to bluff it, obviously.

So, I think call and call/shove just about any turn is a pretty reasonable plan, and gives him the best chance to put a lot of money in whether he's ahead or behind. If he checks to you, don't check back.

But, clearly i'm erring on the lazy side when it comes to actual math here. Except to say that your hand range is too wide, almost nobody is showing up here with an offsuit ace worse than AT or a suited king below KT.

[Lefort]

[ QUOTE ]
But, clearly i'm erring on the lazy side when it comes to actual math here. Except to say that your hand range is too wide, almost nobody is showing up here with an offsuit ace worse than AT or a suited king below KT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but they might show up with an offsuit connector and sooted gapper the odd time.. I was just trying to gauge a %frequency that they'd be calling preflop and decided 13% was too low, 17% was more reasonable. What hands you add to reach that number are irrelevent.

Open up PStove and throw in what your range is there and see what % you get, just for [censored] and giggles.

[JFsports]

Interesting post Lefort, wp. At least something good came from Financial Risk and Stock Portfolio Analysis [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Lefort]

I guess what could make this more useful/interesting is if you realize that VILLAIN is CR-bluffing you often.. and you have J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here.. and you want to know just *how* often he needs to be bluffing vs. felting here for a 3bet push to be profitable..