Can you NL players embarrass the MTT players? (X-post)

[ZeeJustin]

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Havent read the replies, but I was appalled when I read zeejusting wanted to c/r the flop.

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Why?

[mastr]

because we're smoked a ton and its a real bad spot to put more chips in not to mention the chance he 3-bets off the best hand with his AK.. chk/call every street seems solid to me

[MDMA]

Basically, with 300bb deep, and the read that he VERY likely had a monster from the pf-action/body language, how would you really feel getting 3-bet against a guy you know probably never ever bluffs in that spot, and has a range of AA,KK and AK, where you cannot at safely deduct that AA/KK 3-bets and AK calls. I would basically throw up in that spot and curse myself for checkraisng in the first place.

[ZeeJustin]

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Basically, with 300bb deep, and the read that he VERY likely had a monster from the pf-action/body language, how would you really feel getting 3-bet against a guy you know probably never ever bluffs in that spot, and has a range of AA,KK and AK, where you cannot at safely deduct that AA/KK 3-bets and AK calls. I would basically throw up in that spot and curse myself for checkraisng in the first place.

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This isn't a super aggressive high stakes cash game. And it's live. I'm not going broke here ever. I don't think he's 3 betting AK on this flop.

[imjustlucky1]

the fact that he doesnt seem upset or even a little fazed by the floor ruling it a raise instead of a call would really worry me..if he had JJ/QQ or that type of hand that he genuinely wanted to show down cheap and not raise, i think it would show in how he handled himself there

im thinking call turn, check riv. and really consider folding if he gets crazy

[MDMA]

Okay, so you have an easy fold to a 3-bet then, let's say that. Then what are you c/r:ing for? You feel comfortable in that you can c/r and get 3 streets of value out of exactly AK, this granted that he NEVER raises AK on flop, and that he ALWAYS raises AA/KK on flop so that you have perfect information and never get (unintentionally) bluffed/call of against a better hand?

I'm just not seeing the point in check/raising, the ONLY sense would be to get 3 streets of value and stack AK. Does he really go broke with that, and even if he does, can you be sure that he does that on as many cards you would consider blank enough to fire river so that he does not only stack of with AA/KK making your riverbet completely horrible?

How about if he has AQ/AJ then (very unlikely given PF and basically hands I assumed you disregarded when you said you got your suspicions verified), what kind of point is there to c/r against this range? He probably folds turn if he's the average nit, so against those hands, unless very bad calls falls off, you probably get his CB on flop, and, assuming hes the average live nit, he checks behind turn and you get a bet in on river, essentially the same or even slightly more money than you'd get by checkraising flop granted you wouldn't get called on turn. Yeah, sometimes some random backdoor 4-straight will arrive and you won't get a riverbet but then so be it, it's not a concern, especially since these hands very basically dismissed anyway.

The fact that you have narrowed down his range into basically AA, KK, AK, QQ and perhaps JJ basically makes a c/r really crappy with these stacks here; QQ/JJ he's at best bet/folding (and probably checking if he's smart but most people blindly CB anyway), and then you are left with AA, KK, AK, against which checkraising makes no sense unless you feel you can make perfect decisions, never get stacked, and get 3 streets of value against AK checkraising the flop, which seems fairly unlikely given I'd assume he'd cold-call with all these 3-hands to a checkraise very often, and if you are even slightly wrong about him always calling all 3 holdings all the way to river, the fact he you have 6 combos of AA/KK and 8 combos of AK could very fast turn your 3-street value into crap, especially since you checkraised with 3 people in the hand, and the fact that AA/KK can easier call on all 3 streets since its less vulnerable than AK and thus certain cards could scare him off, i.e running pairs for example, although I'll admit that last part is not a huge consideration. Add to the extreme thinness of such a range the fact that it is a tournament and you probably quickly end up taking an overall -EV line since doubling up is not even close worth doing on a "8 to 6 shot" at BEST with so many uncertain factors.

It's also not like you have to defend your hand 3-ways given the very dry flop, and even disregarding that, defending your hand from getting outdrawn would not really be as important as not ending up taking a line against a range as strong as AA/KK/AK where you would most likely end up losing the most when your dead and winning at least not more than you would with a more passive line when you are ahead, and effectively end your tournament 300bb deep on a slim-at-best chance to double your stack.

Just the fact that check/calling 3 streets would probably generate 3 streets of value (albeit of course not as big as if you checkraised of course) from AK easily compared to risking him only calling a turnbet after a checkraise with AA/KK, and at least definitely risking him only calling a riverbet with the hands that beat you, and you end up winning at least the same with the check/call against AK and risking winning even less if he folds to the turnbet.

[trplthrt]

In the hope that I am not just clogging the board, this was my post..

What tilts me the most on this hand is your description of the villain. If your read is true, this is not the MO of a straightforward, not rich, probably satellited beer drinking east coaster. These guys are playing as long as they can play for and enjoying their time. You specifically said your read was 'not tricky and straightforward', both of which I think make it really difficult to pull some fake raise with the immortal nuts. I think it would have been much more clumsy and would have been silent, i.e., not make a big deal of it where his reaction needs to be exposed to everyone at the table. Often times these sort of players overvalue pretty flops vs two limpers / callers even with a hand like AK. While I don't think it is impossible for him to have AA or KK here, the reads don't add up in my mind for the whole acting job.

While I hate reading the river action, as it seems like it must be the nuts, if I leave that out I would not deduce by your description of this guy that he would make this play.

So, knowing the river, I think fold was right, but if I leave that out I don't think it is very clear and I don't think we can fold this turn. I also would check call the river. I don't really see what we've gained by the 5k lead. Maybe you can talk about this some, since I think it is interesting.

-trplthrt

[Daliman]

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Basically, with 300bb deep, and the read that he VERY likely had a monster from the pf-action/body language, how would you really feel getting 3-bet against a guy you know probably never ever bluffs in that spot, and has a range of AA,KK and AK, where you cannot at safely deduct that AA/KK 3-bets and AK calls. I would basically throw up in that spot and curse myself for checkraisng in the first place.

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This isn't a super aggressive high stakes cash game. And it's live. I'm not going broke here ever. I don't think he's 3 betting AK on this flop.

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Sounds like a case for 3 betting AK to me.

Either way, he sounds huge, and surprisingly , this nit folds.

[LarsVegas]

I don't think you can be too sure. He's probably the guy more likely to 3-bet AA/KK and just call AK on the flop, others would be vice versa. And you are stuck out of position and can never be too sure, right?

By just check-calling the flop, the pot is kept smaller, and you could instead lead with a bet on a turn card like this (alternatively checkcall again and lead the river).

Given your description of preflop happenings, you have flopped a very difficult hand. You are of course a favourite over a AA/KK/AK range (though not by much), and your preflop reed seems to be slightly more weighted towards AA/KK. I just don't see why you would want to build a big pot out of position in this spot.

I have rarely been a fan of putting in chips in pots "to see where I am at" (maybe not trusting my reading ability enough (?), however), although I realize that this could probably be at it's most effective against guys like this.

But there must surely be better ways?

Generally speaking, once the last 10-15k of effective stacks goes into this pot, you are likely to be a huge underdog against the range, it's likely to be much more even chances all things put together with the first 10-12k going in, so you'd want to avoid a situation where you'd be put to a *tough* decision for those last 15k ish (I don't for instance, think check-calling 1.3k, 3k, then lead-betting 5k on the river and folding to a shove is *that* "hard").

lars

[LarsVegas]

Another SMALL upside to just playing the flop "cheaply" is seeing is another ace or king comes off on the turn, which would change things drastically.