Organizing a project to determine which sites are legit or rigged

[sheshbeshon]

You are all way way way out of focus here...

there is no way to know if a site is rigged or not from
the hand history. You are all thinking in one direction which is viewing a persons hole cards. this is not the only way to rigg a site.

how about - open the source code ? let you compile the source code yourself ... and have a 3'rd party company check the server side of the software....???
and have the clients decide which comapny will check it ...

[NANONUTS]

It's like with God. There is no proof that he does exist, but there is no proof he doesn't either. Basically it's down to your own personal opinion/beliefs. Although unlike with God you could actually prove that the poker sites are fair/unfair by through compiling and analysing the evidence that is out there in people's databases.

[StitchNV]

I started reading along with the post until people started bashing back and forth so I’m not sure how much of what I got was legitimate, and how much of it was just common internet forum junk.

From what I got nineinchal was talking about starting a type of statistical internet database to determine wither or not a said internet poker site was legitimate or manipulating players into forking over cash.

It sounds like a good idea, but I think his scrutiny was a little diminutive. I’m not trying to under mind nineinchal in anyway; I just think that putting tougher an online database to give players that know about the database an edge over players that wouldn’t know where to look for the database is a little unjust.

Wither or not online gambling is legit or not is a topic we could bicker about in forums for life times to come, or we could just all around say [censored] it and really do something about it… That’s just what I think.

[Henry17]

It has been said a few times already. There is no need to share hand histories. For the questions I think most people would want tested any regular player will have enough hand histories that there is no need to merge them.

The reason I see this as a waste of effort though is that the people who believe sites are rigged are exhibiting an emotional reaction. They are losing players and don't want to face the fact that it is their fault so they blame the site. No amount of statistical evidence is going to convince them.

I also don't see why anyone would care enough to want to put the effort in to convince them. I find their form of craziness entertaining.

[NANONUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
It has been said a few times already. There is no need to share hand histories. For the questions I think most people would want tested any regular player will have enough hand histories that there is no need to merge them.

The reason I see this as a waste of effort though is that the people who believe sites are rigged are exhibiting an emotional reaction. They are losing players and don't want to face the fact that it is their fault so they blame the site. No amount of statistical evidence is going to convince them.

I also don't see why anyone would care enough to want to put the effort in to convince them. I find their form of craziness entertaining.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes there are some idiot donkeys putting forward the opinion that the games aren't fair but there are also winning players with that viewpoint. It's only natural that this side of the argument will attract more disgruntled people but that doesn't mean the argument in invalid. I've already said why I as winning pro for the last 3 years think the sites aren't fair, check my previous posts, I'm not gonna write it again. I would really love someone to compile all the data and run an analysis on it and find out once and for all if the games fair. And even if they weren't I would still be playing as this is my job and if I'm making money that's good enough for me. But I am just very curious as to what could be going on in the software and it annoys the hell out of me the way some people don't even consider what could be happening, dismissing it out of hand when there is huge motive for the sites to balance the cards.

If you took 10-20 winning players lifetime stats and ran an EV calculation on their all-ins to compare actual winnings to the winnings they should have made in theory, this would be enough imo to put end to this argument once and fora all. I think you'd need this amount of data as you don't want people to be complaining about small sample sizes like with the Absolute poker issue.

[Henry17]

What is this huge motive?

In your previous post you said it was to keep fish from going bust and thus maintain more tables. I have seen other people claim it is to increase rake. Neither of those make much sense for a major site.

[OMFGWTF]

We need to call all the casinos in Vegas and Atlantic City and ask them to write down the results of every hand they deal for the next few years, or however long it takes to collect, say, 200M hands.

If we are to prove that -online- poker is rigged, you have to compare it to -offline- stats, right?

[StitchNV]

My post wasn’t really about satisfying one side of the fence as to the legitimacy of online poker sites RNGs.
It was about common guidelines that internet sites HAVE to follow if they are going to provide gambling/wagering services. (And the possibility of implementing stricter guidelines for poker.)

My point is simply that if the topic is so “up in the air.” Then wouldn’t it benefit both sides if there where a stricter legal medium?

Not even a legal system because that’s even a little extreme. The only reason I say “legal” is because that’s what worked for Nevada.

Hell even something like “PokerNanny” or the approval of some company or organization that dose nothing but proves the legitimacy of online poker.

“Play at our site because we are up to code on all legal standers.”

Or

“Play at our site because we are NPSW approved.”

And “I like to play at this site because they are up to code on all legal standers, or they are NPSW approved.”

That would give ammo to the ““pros”” in so that they could say something like “You’re a dummy because that sites up to legal code so they can’t be cheating.”
As apposed to “You just don’t like playing online because you’re not good as me.”

I’m sorry; I’m just thinking solution as apposed to complaining…

[nineinchal]

[ QUOTE ]
I started reading along with the post until people started bashing back and forth so I’m not sure how much of what I got was legitimate, and how much of it was just common internet forum junk.

From what I got nineinchal was talking about starting a type of statistical internet database to determine wither or not a said internet poker site was legitimate or manipulating players into forking over cash.

It sounds like a good idea, but I think his scrutiny was a little diminutive. I’m not trying to under mind nineinchal in anyway; I just think that putting tougher an online database to give players that know about the database an edge over players that wouldn’t know where to look for the database is a little unjust.

Wither or not online gambling is legit or not is a topic we could bicker about in forums for life times to come, or we could just all around say [censored] it and really do something about it… That’s just what I think.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly stitch, I just want to divide the legitimate from the crooks; whatever that may entail.

I believe the body of knowledge will come from various sciences such as math, statistics, economics, computer science, forensics, accoutning, auditing, logistics, to name but a few. Sorry if I left anybody out, feel free to chime in.

[StitchNV]

how about - open the source code ? let you compile the source code yourself ... and have a 3'rd party company check the server side of the software....???
and have the clients decide which company will check it ...

The source code for the program wouldn’t really do you much good, you already know what you need to know about the program on your computer, which is that it uses port 465 which is the same port most servers use for SSLs.

The more important question is what there servers use for a RNG. Such as Full Tilt using what they call a TRNG, as apposed to other sites using a PRNG.

Other important information would be “When dose the server relay my hole cards to my competitors system?”

A fear would be if the server was programmed to have the whole game played out, no matter what the situation, such as “Player 1 will get Ad 3s, Player 2 will get 7c 8d, player 3 will get Kd 7s, so on.” Then something like “Flop will be XXX, turn will be X, river will be X, return results, compile results, declare winner.”

I don’t think that would be the case for any of the sites you might play on. I could almost tell you for a fact that every poker game you play is SSS (Server side scripted) meaning that information is only sent to each players computer as it becomes relevant. Its kinda simple to understand if you have ever programmed anything in ASP, or PHP.

But having an outside party/company examine the programming and giving it an approval would be ideal.

So would other factors such as “How dose this site explore the acclamations of cheating, coddling, botting, and so forth.” Then if after examining like lets say 20 different investigations a month, give them approval if they meet the standards.

Another thing to keep in mind; Once google inc employs somebody to work on there search engine spider bots, or web ranking formula, that person signs a contract stating that they will not work on any other competitors spider bots programming, or website ranking formula.

Dose my poker site have the guy that programmed there RNG sign a contract saying that they wont play on there website, or is the guy that work on there RNG everyday sitting across the high stacks NL cyber table from me?

I don’t know, maybe I’m just tired and my minds getting away from me… but for some reason I’m really getting into this.