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[ QUOTE ] sooner or later there has to be SOME team out there that figures it out. [/ QUOTE ] Have you ever brought math into a conversation with a run of the mill sports fan? I mentioned statistical variance to some of my brighter friends during a football game and they were like no way there is no place for math in this. Hell, it's surprising how many people don't get the concept of results oriented thinking. [/ QUOTE ] I've tried doing this with some peers at a University widely considered to be a top notch school of high education. I've written out the math for them, tried explaining it in less complicated terms, done the whole variance shpeel, but the conversation always comes down to two points. 1) Statistics don't take into account "intangibles" like home field advantage and momentum, and 2) When it comes down to it, no coach in the NFL is going to go against conventional wisdom when their job is on the line thus they'll never do this. I've gotten some friends to agree that in a theoretical sense going for two down 8 is correct, but they still aren't sold. However, I think it is more correct to do it in the NFL where possession in OT is determined by a coin flop whereas in college skill level does come into play much more. |
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