UFC 76

[igetbadbeat]

Diego is a dog because he's supposed to be and he's a very small dog at that. Fitch is an absolutely HORRIBLE paper matchup for Diego... Fitch is a MUCH larger competitor with better boxing and GREAT wrestling. Plus Fitch has a brown belt in BJJ and has shown great prowess on the ground. That is a bad matchup for Diego and he's going to have a hard time winning. He could win, but I don't see how anyone would handicap him as the favorite.

Anderson Silva doesn't count because he was more from Cage rage than from Pride, but hte fact of the matter is you cannot simply say "Pride guys are underperforming compared to their expectations" and then leave it at that when you are handicapping.

Crocop is a 1-D fighter whos style is much more effective in the RING, plus GG is a great fighter too. Think about it, was it really that big of an upset in the eyes of people who don't buy into hype? No, liek randy couture thought, it was not.

The only truely shocking upset I've seen recently was Matt Serra vs GSP, no other fight have I been truly shocked by the results.

Did anyone else see Shogun vs Nakamura? For a wild aggressive striker who is a so called brawler, he sure did avoid the exchanges and simply take Nakamura down to UD a win.

If you are going to say forrest is being undervalued, pleaes lets not just say it's due to "Variance". Why don't you say it's because Forrest has become a much cleaner technical striker after his KO loss to Keith Jardine, and so we could possibly see him winning a UD if he can avoid being taken down. Forrest has shown greatly improved footwork and ability to pick spots in the ramirez fight and Forrest seems to know a ton about Shogun. Add to the mix that he's at Randy's camp and now we KNOW that he not only knows about Shogun, but is coming up with ways to counter Shogun's strength. Plus consider the fact that Shogun just got married and is supposedly taking Forrest lightly(which IMO is only plausible hearsay). I might consider betting on Forrest for those reasons...but certainly not because "it's a high variance fight, lets just bet the underdog".