AQ, against LAG HU

[Unknown Soldier]

this is def a fold because of what jam said


fees betting this turn is really bad. Just give up when he calls the flop

[Shes92]

i actually called in this hand and my thoughts at the time were that he didnt show any strenght on the flop and I really felt I was ahead at this point.. the turn was highly unlikely to help him and i checked the river expecting him to bet with a very wide range... I didnt bet because I didnt want to be raised and I felt he would bluff a large majority of the time so I would lose if I bet and was called and would gain nothing if I bet and he folded. It seems that the large majority of people think this is bad reasoning .....

[Shes92]

bump

[murmeltier21]

i have been playing a lot of HU lately and there's def times that i look villain up in this spot. w/o specific reads i like a fold.

[Shes92]

[ QUOTE ]
i dont understand why you would call here. how can A high be good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why cant villain be calling this flop with 2 overs and betting river because Ive checked two streets to him OOP

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
Trivial fold given the low probability of him calling the flop and checking the turn without showdown value to bluff the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
End thread.

[thac]

I'd stop putting him on the one hand you beat as opposed to all the pairs he had or the draws that mostly hit.

[Wolfram]

[ QUOTE ]

Why cant villain be calling this flop with 2 overs and betting river because Ive checked two streets to him OOP

[/ QUOTE ]
He can have anything really, it's just a question of his range and whether you beat that range often enough to make calling +EV. It's possible he called w/2 overs, but then he'll often take a stab on the turn once you check to him. It is true that he might check behind the turn and then finally take a stab at the river. But it's also very probable that he had a small pp and checked the turn because he feared you were slowplaying a bigger PP and were looking to stack-a-donk him.

Now that you checked twice, he will probably bet all his pairs for value because your hand is pretty much face up by now as a big ace that missed.

Also, both straight draws have you beat.

He's offering you 1:2.6 odds on a call so you have to be right 27% of the time. I don't think that missed overs that wait till the turn to bluff is 27% of his range so therefore I'd probably fold. It's probably close though.