UFC 76

[jono]

[ QUOTE ]
If you think -400 is fair for shogun, you are freaking nuts...

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fair enough, but at -325 I'm all over this

[MikeyPatriot]

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Especially with the way both forrest and shogun tend to fight, this could turn into a simple brawl/slugfest standing, and brawls are unpredictable.

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Forrest Griffin

14-4-0

Wins
3 (T)KOs
6 Submissions
5 Decisions

Losses
2 (T)KOs
2 Decisions

Mauricio Shogun Rua

16-2-0

Wins
13 (T)KOs
1 Submission
2 Decisions

Losses
1 (T)KO
1 Submission

Let's look into those a little bit. Forrest is 5-2 in the UFC with a close loss to Tito that he could have won, a loss to Jardine that I haven't seen, a close win against Bonnar at the TUF finale that I thought Bonnar won, and most recently a decision win against Hector Ramirez that I also haven't seen.

For as much as he likes to throw, he only has 3 wins by T(KO) (with one by cut). It doesn't appear he has enough punching power to knock guys out. He has 6 submissions, only one of which has come in the UFC. I would be shocked to see Griffin sub Rua here.

Shogun, on the other hand, went 12-1 in Pride. His only loss was a freak accident against Coleman (did Shogun fight as a HW here?) with wins over Alistair Overeem x2, Nakamura, Randleman, Rogerio Nogueira, and Rampage. He stops almost 90% of his fights (with his decisions coming against Nakamura and Nogueira), and 11 of his fights are stopped before the 5 minute mark.

[ QUOTE ]
How many times has a great striker or dominant guy been KO'd or beaten decisively by an 'inferior' opponent this year?

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I don't know, how many?

Cro Cop lost to Gonzaga because he had no answers for elbows on the ground and the cage. He lost to Kongo because he broke a rib in round 1, probably wasn't there mentally, and probably is on the downside of his career.

Sylvia lost to Couture because Randy is right up there with Fedor in terms of gameplanning.

Gomi lost to a (very underrated) Nick Diaz in a slug fest that he obviously didn't train for.

Arona and Rogerio lost to an apparent horse in Sokoudjou.

Serra beat GSP in one of the few fights that still looks crazy months later.

I agree with you that fights are probably more high variance than we like to think, but I don't agree with your assessment of the fight.

[DannyOcean_]

Mikey,

Your points are very good, and i don't dispute them. Shogun has a god-like resume. Forrest does not. Let me see if I can just be more eloquent in my reasoning than I was before.

Pride vs. UFC guys seems to be very high variance in particular. The 'favorite', be it a big fav or a small fav, has lost a lot. Quenton was not expected to win, Big Nog nearly got KTFO'd, CC is down and out, Gomi vs. Diaz, etc etc. Whenever a guy switches orgs, i believe the variance increases, and I think bridge jumping lines become more inappropriate.

It's just harder than normal to reference skill set vs. skill set with limited common opponent, and different rules/environments.

Secondly, shogun is a banger. He's a terrific banger, as evidenced by his record, but this style still seems to me to be very high variance compared to other styles. When you move forward and throw with abandon, you can always get caught.

Also, Forrest seems to love this type of fight. Forrest can be caught, as his Jardine loss shows, but fundamentally, he loves to brawl. Shogun may be better at it, but he's not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone. CroCop was thought of as a better striker than Kongo, but the fight was dangerous because he wasn't putting Kongo out of his comfort zone, so Kongo had a real chance, more than what the bookies gave him. I think the same thing is true with forrest. He'll be fine in a brawl, and although he might lose he has a definite shot. I call this maybe a 70/30 fight.

So anyways the following things
High variance of two 'brawlers' fighting
+
High variance when switching orgs.
+
Shogun not putting Forrest out of his comfort zone

make me believe this line should be closer than it is.

[threeonefour]

i am not a ufc expert but i would just like to say that the word variance is being severely abused in these conversations, and the 'appeal to variance' argument used in this thread is fallacious from a scientific perspective. so i wouldn't be betting my money on account of that.

[TomCowley]

No, it's not. Considering the variance of a style matchup, in addition to the relative skill levels of the fighters, is a necessary part of setting a line.

[threeonefour]

[ QUOTE ]
No, it's not. Considering the variance of a style matchup, in addition to the relative skill levels of the fighters, is a necessary part of setting a line.

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yes it is.

the argument may be that given these players styles, the edge the one has over the other is diminished. similar to the way NL heads up matches are effected by how deep of stacks you start off with, one could imagine a deep stack expert experiencing higher variance if he started playing HU matches with half as many BB.

it is this decrease in the edge over one's opponent which increases variance (similar to the way a binomial random variable's variance increases as the probability of a successful trial approaches 50%).

to state it the other way around isn't sound.


ie

you guys say this guy hasn't taken many losses, so consider two players each with the following record (played against the same opponents in the same setting):

WWWWLWWLWWWWLLWW

suppose player 1 is a striker and player 2 is a submission expert... who is the higher variance fighter? the obvious answer is that there is no way to possibly conclude based on the evidence that one's playing style has more variance than the other.

[billygrippo]

[ QUOTE ]

suppose player 1 is a striker and player 2 is a submission expert... who is the higher variance fighter? the obvious answer is that there is no way to possibly conclude based on the evidence that one's playing style has more variance than the other.

[/ QUOTE ]

i would argue that an expert at striking has higher variance than a ground expert

there is an element of luck in striking that doesnt carry over well into ground work

edit:

maybe i read your post wrong but what im saying is:

good striker vs good striker = higher variance

good grappling vs good grappling = lower variance

[MikeyPatriot]

I wouldn't call Shogun's style wild. He's extremely aggressive and keeps a very high pace, but he doesn't really just swing away.

[ QUOTE ]
Pride vs. UFC guys seems to be very high variance in particular. The 'favorite', be it a big fav or a small fav, has lost a lot. Quenton was not expected to win, Big Nog nearly got KTFO'd, CC is down and out, Gomi vs. Diaz, etc etc. Whenever a guy switches orgs, i believe the variance increases, and I think bridge jumping lines become more inappropriate.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think Nog/Herring is a very good example here. Nog got caught by a kick/knee as he ducked down, but he completely dominated that fight from start to finish.

If you mean Quinton wasn't expected to win against Chuck, I personally had him winning before that fight. Don't really understand why what was expected matters, as he went out and beat him again.

The only other guys that have come over and fought (I might be missing people, I just went through the fighters list from the Pride FC wiki page):

Fabricio Werdum: 0-1, loss to Arlovski
Anderson Silva: 4-0, wins over Leben, Franklin, Lutter, Marquardt

While they aren't perfect comparisons as fighters, I think Shogun is gonna follow a path more similar to A. Silva than Cro Cop.

I just don't think Griffin has much of a chance with Shogun. You say that "Griffin loves this type of fight," but when has Shogun been a standup-only fighter? Shogun has a very solid ground game. Will the rules change hurt him? Maybe, but Chutebox fighters have always trained with elbows. I see Shogun being better in every facet of MMA - he's better standing up, he's better in the clinch, he's better at GNP, and he's better off his back.

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It's just harder than normal to reference skill set vs. skill set with limited common opponent, and different rules/environments.

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Shogun has fought in a cage (IFC tournament) and under the unified rules twice in Pride (albeit in a ring).

You were right about Kongo though, so maybe I'm way off. I just don't think Forrest can touch Shogun right now.

[warrantofice]

8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

Give me Diego all day

[DannyOcean_]

[ QUOTE ]
8:00 PM 32573 DIEGO SANCHEZ - - +105
32574 JON FITCH - - -135

Give me Diego all day

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that much about fitch, but it's possible people under value diego because he's a whiny bitch.