200NL- Squeeze QQ and BB shoves

[jeccross]

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what? its obvious +EV according to pokerstove results and ive given him tightest pushing range (if you consider villain is reg which seems to be according to his stats/pro nickname). i cant see any reg not pushing AK there in BB

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No you haven't, tightest pushing range is KK+. Some people fold AK here, only a complete donk pushes anything other than AK+ given the action (QQ makes hardly ny difference regardless and is unlikely). Pokerstove shows you have a 2% edge with all the assumptions on the optimistic side so if you want to gamble a whole stack on at best a 2% edge then go ahead.

I know AK isn't in CR advised starting hnds for a start.

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i would never ever fold if i could put my stack in w/ a 2% edge. If you would then move down until you are rolled well enough

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Then you are very lucky that you able to calculate your exact edge at the table. Please read my post better. The edge you calcualte obviously depends on the assumptions you make regarding Villain's hand. The more optimistic your range/weightings you give to each hand then the bigger your edge is. I wouldn't put my chips in if I had made optimistic assumptions (which imo these are) and come up with a 2% edge as that means it is likely that if you use realistic assumptions (if theoretically you could somehow calculate these), then you would come up with a -EV answer.

[jeccross]

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Fold. Don't think the dead money is anywhere near enough to make up for the times you're behind AA,KK. I lieks shoving here more and more with AA,KK as people always put you on AK.

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This is different. UTG is only facing one raiser here when he pushes whereas BBin hn one pushes into original raiser and reraiser. Big difference in my opinion as it is much less liekly to be a move.

Do you even play these games man? Guys can turn up with all kinds of stuff, QQ can definitely call here. I can't believe everyone wants to give up here, especially since the way this hand went down a lot of guys think youre just putting a move on the dead money.

Here's one from yesterday me against a decent winning tag from 1/2 and 2/4

PartyPoker $200 NL Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> HandRecorder v0.9b

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#FF0000">UTG raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BU calls $8, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises to $40</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#FF0000">UTG raises to $199</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero is all-In</font>, UTG calls $5.

Flop: ($414) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>


Turn: ($254) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>


River: ($254) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>


Final Pot: $254.

Results in white below:
<font color="#FFFFFF">
UTG shows [ Th, Tc ]two pairs, Tens and Eights.
Hero doesn't show [ Ac, Kh ]a pair of Eights.
UTG wins $414.50 USD from the main pot with two pairs, Tens and Eights.
UTG shows [ Th, Tc ]two pairs, Tens and Eights.
Hero doesn't show [ Ac, Kh ]a pair of Eights.
UTG wins $414.50 USD from the main pot with two pairs, Tens and Eights</font>

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[Jay Riall]

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umm...even if the other two guys folded I think this may still be a fold.

The pot odds in Toni's post have been miscalculated, haven't they?

Pot is $248 (8 + 8 + 32 + 200)
$168 to call (200 - 32)
168/(248+168) =
168/416 =
40.38% pot odds, not 37.5% as previously stated
39.8% Stove odds

so now it's slightly -EV. Still calling?

And jeecross points out that stove results are unweighted. If you give more weight to pushing with AK here, then maybe call. I personally don't; I think AK is much more likely to call than push here, especially since he's in position, and AA/KK is much more likely to push than call here. fold.

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there is NOOOOO way that ak calling here would ever be a good play.

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??? AKs has better equity than QQ vs a range of AK, QQ+. AKo is only very slightly worse than QQ vs this range.

[futuredoc85]

jay i think he meant that from the perspective of the BB in this hand

[Jay Riall]

oops I should read posts before I reply.

[Imrahil]

I just thought that I better let it go since I don't know how this guy plays and he probably doesn't know how I play and it was his first hand at the table.

But after reading this I think I'm leaning towards a call now based on some of your guys' reads on villain.

I also have to remember that QQ vs a range of the tight KK+, AK is still a large 40% to win.

[Stonewalled]

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ok ill break this down as simply as possible.

-Hero is likely squeezing with a fairly wide range in this spot because of all the dead money in the pot

-BB is an aggressive regular

-BB Absolutely can be resqueezing w/ JJ here and that would be far more likely than him calling cold w/ it since that would invite every other player in the pot to set mine.

-Given that OPs play looks like a squeeze, BB is shoving AK 100% of the time here.

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Spot on IMO.

I call with QQ here.

[goofyballer]

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Do you want to get your money in hoping its a race?

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DON'T U GUYS KNOW, AK IS A DRAWING HAND!! AND U SHOULD NEVER PUT ALL UR MONEYZ IN ON A DRAW!

[Jay Riall]

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Do you want to get your money in hoping its a race?

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DON'T U GUYS KNOW, AK IS A DRAWING HAND!! AND U SHOULD NEVER PUT ALL UR MONEYZ IN ON A DRAW!

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Keira Knightley was just on Johnathon Ross show (UK Friday night chatshow). Goddamn she looked awesome, I made sexytime with my hand at least 3 times during the interview.

[tedtodd]

I've played a ton with him. I'm really surprised you haven't come across him yet. He's very solid.

I call here with TT+ and AK.