I'm bored

[Man of Means]

Preflop, flop, turn look super standard - passive players call more than they bluff/bet.

On the river we should note that A9, A8, A5, A3, A2 just "got there" and this is a heads-up blind battle (+ shorthanded to begin with?)
Do these weaker aces make up a large enough portion of his raising range? Has villain raised weakish rivered top pairs in similar situations or does he tend to just call?

Advocating for check/call:
If you check river, will he usually value bet a weaker ace or lower two pair?

[MrWookie]

Aaron, I don't think calling your turn bet a value bet is consistent with folding the river. Either he calls you with a lot of worse aces, or it's not a value bet at all. Then, if he is calling you with worse aces, I think he foolishly raises them at least one time in 9 so that we can call profitably.

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
Aaron, I don't think calling your turn bet a value bet is consistent with folding the river. Either he calls you with a lot of worse aces, or it's not a value bet at all. Then, if he is calling you with worse aces, I think he foolishly raises them at least one time in 9 so that we can call profitably.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wook - It's a value bet against all diamond flush draws and maybe even against hands that have two overcards to the board. It's a value/protection bet if he has a hand like QJ with one card to come.

[RemyXO]

I is approve of da heeros lines.
To all Aaron haters:

(1) Open PokerTracker
(2) Filter on loose passive players. Say, 35/2.0/0.7 or worse
(3) Filter on all the hands where they raised or check-raised the river.
(4) See how many times TPNK would hold up.
(5) Report back the results.

Aaron, ship this to your villain: