Set over set

[Mundy]

Set over set is a cooler in this situation.
Villain will have all sorts of two pair hands.

[AceOfClubs]

[ QUOTE ]
Set over set is a cooler in this situation.
Villain will have all sorts of two pair hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
He had set.

[Mike Kelley]

It's still an easy all in. Do you fold aces cuz they get beat one time?

[AlexB182]

You have to try to see those things independent from their results. Of course you'll lose in set over set situations every now and then but in general and in the long term, playing for stacks in these situations is +EV.

[Mike Kelley]

our odds of hitting a set

1/7.5 our neighbors odds of hitting a set 1/7.5. So, my estimate is that set over set should occur about 1 in 56.25 times you get one? I know the math could be taken to a much higher level, but is this completely wrong from a statistics stand point? I need to ask this in the probabilities section and see what those booger eaters say.

[justscott]

Google is your friend.

http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/

[Mike Kelley]

[ QUOTE ]
Google is your friend.

http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/mag86/

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the link. I'll look over that tonight. From scanning it's pretty freaking rare, even more so than I stated.

[Sounded Simple]

Isnt it something like

For Middle Set:
"1/17 (their odds of PP)" x "1/49 (They can hit 1 of 49 cards on the flop)" x "No. Of opponents"
Or - 1/833

For Bottom Set:
"1/17 (their odds of PP)" x "2/49 (They can hit 2 of 49 cards on the flop)" x "No. Of opponents"
Or - 1/416.5

Can anyone confirm?

[Sounded Simple]

Thinking about it the above wrong unless you assume that your opponent has seen the flop with a random hand. You need to use what % of his Preflop Range are PP.

Therefore it should be -

For Middle Set:
"No. of times they have a Higher PP/All other hands in their range" x "1/49 (They can hit 1 of 49 cards on the flop)"

For Bottom Set:
"No. of times they have a Higher PP/All other hands in their range" x "2/49 (They can hit 2 of 49 cards on the flop)"



Bottom line - not often enough to worry about unless you have an insane read.

[Das Budrick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Set over set is a cooler in this situation.
Villain will have all sorts of two pair hands.

[/ QUOTE ]
He had set.

[/ QUOTE ]

haha