pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]

[BobboFitos]

ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

[gball]

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ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

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OTOH, when playing LAG and running bad could mean that people happen to hold/catch hands they won't surrender to your aggression? Even more variance ?)

[BobboFitos]

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ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

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OTOH, when playing LAG and running bad could mean that people happen to hold/catch hands they won't surrender to your aggression? Even more variance ?)

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no, it means you're losing at a more consistant rate.

the hypothetical i throw out is basically... a nit plays far fewer hands then a lag, GIVEN SAME WIN RATE, if a nit "runs bad" it takes far longer to even this out, given they have far fewer opportunities to capitilize on their expected win rate. ie, if over 1k hands they play 10% (or 100 hands) and "run bad," it will take net 300 hands (or 3k) to "even this streak," vs someone playing 3x the hands typically will have fewer swings.

there is alot more i have to say on this but it's probably wasted.

[RiverFenix]

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there is alot more i have to say on this but it's probably wasted.

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I think I'd pay $ for you to add more thoughts on LAG stuff. Is that part of your coaching talking about LAG theory?

[xd40]

its only ~8k hands, but its all i played since i moved up to 50nl. still, from what i read above .. i'm not playing terrible right?

[Unknown Soldier]

[ QUOTE ]
ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

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the more hands you play, the more variance there is, surely. Look at HU poker. You cant argue that variance HU isn't greater then 6-max. Sure lags win pots w/o going to showdown, but there is still a probability assigned to that event taking place.