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Old 08-24-2007, 07:37 PM
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Default Re: Turning Stone 550 ESPC, Bad Spot with Huge Draw

[ QUOTE ]
Are we calling hoping to induce Ansky to jam so the old guy jams so we can call and have pot odds to win a huge pot? If not, I don't understand the call. Ansky is never calling behind us, he's either jamming (with a set or a straight) or folding. If a club hits the turn, I can't believe we're getting paid off unless someone else also has a flush, which happens almost never. We're getting less than 2:1 to call the old guy, with no implied odds IMO. It's also more than 1/3 of our stack to call.

I think the old guy's range is mostly 22 and 33 with a slight chance of A2 or A3 (hasn't played a pot, just put in a small pot-building raise over a C/R). Ansky was in the BB, he could have anything, including a set or a straight. Especially with Ansky, who did C/R the flop after all, still to act behind us, I think this has to be a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ansky's kind of unimportant here. He's folding a lot here. Whether we shove or call, he's going to fold or play. I guess he's not playing on with two pair. I guess. I don't know how he plays a set or straight.

Our hand may be face up but against old guy's range and Ansky's pf cr-ing range in a limped pot in BB against a button flop steal, I think we're +EV whether we call, Ansky shoves, old guy shoves and we call, Ansky calls and we see the turn in position with the option to fold.
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