NL25: fold bottom set?

[bkar824]

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His aggression factor, at the time, was zero. Even after the bet/3bet on the turn, it only finished at 1. Nitty, yes, passive, YES. Passive players don't bet/3bet a street without a huge huge hand. Random 2 pairs in an unraised 5 way pot do not qualify. Your particular hand would be the worst possible hand I could see him doing this with; hence you are beat here A LOT.

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Even if he exposed his 34 I think getting it all-in here is +EV

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Um, Wrong?

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No, he's right, because if he has 34 then you still have 10 outs to the river, I mean if the only hand he could possibly have is 34, then you're right. There is no way to narrow his range that tightly.

[Effen]

10 outs, 21% to win.

$5 to call, not getting 4:1 here because pot is like $12. So yeah, he's wrong if villain had flipped 34 over.

[FireStorm]

If this was the flop Hero worst case scenario would have two shots to fill up, not one.

[CazicT]

If villian shows us 43, all-in would indded be -EV.

Although a flatcall will probably +EV. Is the villian really going to fold a straight when the board pairs? All we would need would be like a 1/2 pot size bet to break even.

This is just the case where he has specifically 43 though. I really believe you all are underestimating his ability to get all the money in the middle with only 2 pair.

[coordi]

Seems like he would just call with two pair as a super passive opponent. If hes willing to 3 bet 2 pair here, I don't know why he would check the flop to give a free card to the draws. Doesnt make sense to me. Of course alot of [censored] these 25NL>= peeps do blows my mind.

[CazicT]

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Seems like he would just call with two pair as a super passive opponent. If hes willing to 3 bet 2 pair here, I don't know why he would check the flop to give a free card to the draws. Doesnt make sense to me. Of course alot of [censored] these 25NL>= peeps do blows my mind.

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12/6/0 over 31

The number 0 is based on very little information.
His PFR% indicates he's raised maybe 2 hands in the 31 he's played. Maybe he won the blinds and didn't even see a flop. He's limped a couple of more times, maybe he had a draw and called a couple times then folded. That's all the info we're going on. He can have a 0 AF but still not be the biggest NIT ever. It is only 31 hands. Even 70 hands isn't alot to go on for postflop AF.

And even if he has a low aggro for real, that could just mean he calls alot with pairs, but when he get's a monster like 2 pair, he likes to slow play the flop and push the action on the turn.

Be careful when interpreting PT numbers. A low AF doesn't necassarily mean he needs at least trips to ever raise or get all-in. It just means he calls more often than he bets and raises.

[MadMike]

BB thinks he's got the best hand on the turn- this is not a bluff. That's about all we can conclude from his 3-bet and his stats.

So what could he have where you beat him but he could still think he's ahead of your range? The key would be to know what he thinks your turn raise means. If you've been playing LAG here and doing a lot of semibluff raising then you want to be AI here. If not... then I think this is a lot closer than some are giving credit for if BB is even close to being solid.

At NL25 I still call because villians usually think one street at a time only and he could put you on a range that includeds medium-strong aces for TP, random 2 pairs, 34, as well as sets. Against this range he'd be putting you on, any two pair is probably a favorite and the meat of his range- meaning you are the favorite to get AI.

But if he is thinking and knows you don't suck, then your range is pretty narrow here and would be 22, 34s, A2s because you are not going have 2pair with 85,82,or 52. And you're not going to slowplay the flop 4-way with 2 diamonds with A5s,A8s, 55, or 88. So against that range, what range would the BB have that he thinks he's a favorite against you- but you still beat? Not much.... if you assume he'd not slowplay 2-pair or a set with two diamonds on the flop then the only hands that makes sense would be A2, 82, 52, 43. And if he had your range as 22,34,A2s then he's not going nuts with 82, 52, or A2.

Of course this is a 25NL- so just push since he could have pretty much any 2-pair hand since no one at 25NL really thinks the way I outlined above at the table.