Nut Flush Draw and Overcards

[Xhad]

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It's three-way after the other guy folds. If we call we get 1 BB max. If we raise, we're almost certainly getting 1 BB from BB

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Assuming our hand is good (I agree that there's no specific reason to put BB on a better hand but we're not even close to the nuts here)

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with the added potential of getting 2 more from a Button coldcall.

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I doubt button has more than a pair of 8s and even fish can probably fold that for 2 bets.

[Sushiglutton]

I 3-bet pf. I would raise the flop. I just call river.

[Oink]

I just want to add that you shouldnt take the free card if you get the pot HU.

The pot will be around 5-6 BB's so with 15 cards to improve you only need a fold around 10-12% of the time to make a bet +EV.

[sharpie]

I also think JT is possible on the river, and alot of people at .25/.5 won't valuebet mid pair on the river into 3 opponents.

[Harv72b]

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You think it's most probable that BB turned two pair? He's in a perfect to c/r, and that 9 is not a scare card at all. I'd expect this to just be 8x or 9x a whole lot. The read I want on the river is not on BB. I think we beat him a whole lot. The read I want is on button. I think if button is tight, we have an easy raise. If button is loose, a call looks much better to get the likely overcall.

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I don't have a whole lot of recent micro experience, but in those relatively few hands I've seen this line a lot from a hand like 98 or 92 or whatever--they just see that they turned two pair & can't wait to bet it. I think 9x is also fairly likely, but what can the X be after he peels the flop? Maybe A9, maybe he's loose & bad & just likes to peel.

As far as the button goes, in a scenario like this where it's effectively 3-handed when the action's to me on the river and that river card wasn't a big-time scare card (i.e., flush card or 4-straight on board), I don't really worry too much about the player behind me. He's either calling 1 bet or he's not, and if he is calling 1 then he might call 2 as well. I'm primarily focused on the bettor, his range, how I stack up against it, and how likely he is to pay me off with a worse hand if I raise. If he's going to call the raise with many worse hands, then obviously I want to raise; it gets me the same number of bets (at least) as if I got the overcall. If my range doesn't stack up very well against his, then I'd rather go for the overcall & not open myself up to being 3bet or called by a better hand/have a worse hand fold. If I have no idea about his play (as here), I generally default to the "safer" option, which is flat calling & going for the overcall.