Big Stacked AKs

[SonofDjugashvili]

Oops, misread stack sizes - yeah, I guess you have to shove the flop, given the pot size, villain's stack. And watch him turn over AA. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Even against AA you have some outs. There is no way this AQ unless he is a complete moron. His call of your r/r OOP for 1/3 of his stack is highly suspicious. He is either a fool or has a real good hand - I would not be surprised at all to see AA or KK here.

[SamC489]

def. bet pot, I think JJ and QQ are more likely than AA or KK, but betting is your play.

[Sherman]

Why does everyone want to bet?

Is he calling with a worse hand? If so what are they?

Is he folding a better hand? If so which ones?

Is our hand vulnerable if it is ahead? If so to which hands that villain holds?

[Dunkman]

[ QUOTE ]
Why does everyone want to bet?

Is he calling with a worse hand? If so what are they?

Is he folding a better hand? If so which ones?

Is our hand vulnerable if it is ahead? If so to which hands that villain holds?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Because either our hand is best or we're flipping, and we should have some FE on our bet.

2) I don't think we can expect a reasonable call from a worst hand, except for the random awful donk call from like a worse A that is just really confused.

3) I think we do have some FE against JJ especially, hands like 99 and 88 that just couldn't fold initially, maybe a nitty QQ, but probably not.

4) Our hand is vulnerable to under pairs, that we're now flipping with, when we brick the turn. Additionally, if we make a pair on the turn (or maybe a flush even,) we're likely to not get action from QQ and JJ, so it's not like we can get action from them on later streets. We may fold JJ lower pairs out on the flop, but if we brick the turn I'd say we have no FE against those hands, and indeed they're probably shoving a non A or K turn (JJ may check again if the turn is a queen, but QQ is probably also checking a turn Q, so that doesn't help us all that much. Additionally, turn Q means AQ got there, which makes it not the greatest card in the world to shove at, even if we could fold JJ.) Our hand isn't vulnerable to AQ, but I can't really imagine AQ putting more money in this hand while still behind unless like the Qc hits on the turn or something.

edit: Ok, I revised it, I still think it's a push, but it's closer than I thought initially.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why does everyone want to bet?

Is he calling with a worse hand? If so what are they?

Is he folding a better hand? If so which ones?

Is our hand vulnerable if it is ahead? If so to which hands that villain holds?

[/ QUOTE ]

1) Because we rate to have the best hand right now, but won't if the turn bricks.

2) QQ and JJ will almost certainly call, and they are pretty solidly behind (and are also the most likely villain holdings.)

3) I don't know that a better hand is folding, but although QQ and JJ are behind us, we profit more when they fold than we do when they call, and JJ could certainly decide to fold here given the action.

4) Our hand is vulnerable to under pairs when we brick the turn. Additionally, if we make a pair on the turn, we're likely to not get action from QQ and JJ, so it's not like we can get action from them on later streets. We may fold JJ and QQ out on the flop, but if we brick the turn I'd say we have no FE against those hands, and indeed they're probably shoving a non A or K turn (JJ may check again if the turn is a queen, but QQ is probably also checking a turn Q, so that doesn't help us all that much. Additionally, turn Q means AQ got there, which makes it not the greatest card in the world to shove at, even if we could fold JJ.) Our hand isn't vulnerable to AQ, but I can't really imagine AQ putting more money in this hand while still behind unless like the Qc hits on the turn or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

All good answers. Thank you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I guess I am not worried about turn bricks because there is no way I am folding this hand to any turn card anyway. I also think that checking behind on the flop might put this thought in his mind, "Oh he missed! Now I can shove-bluff the turn!" Of course when he does you snap call and he is screwed on a hand that he would have folded to a flop shove.

Anyhow, given his stack and the size of the pot, there is no way I am folding this hand on the turn anyway. I might as well let him fire away. It seems to me that the only way the $ is not going into this pot by the turn is if I shove the flop and he folds a worse hand.

[gimmetheloot]

yeah a check back here is good.

[Dunkman]

Yeah they would have been good answers if I could do math. Anyway, If he could call the reraise with an unpaired hand besides AQ I'm more of a fan of checking behind and letting him bluff. Sometimes I make the mistake of assuming that since I'd only call it with AQ (barring reads of course) I assume he won't either, which is probably not the case, thus my tidy ROI. I assumed his range was mostly pairs, and we'd have to fold on the turn. Putting villain on a range that allows us to call a turn shove makes checking the flop a lot better.

[ZJ123]

shoveeeeeeeeeeeee. Theres 4500 in the pot and he has 5400 behind. We have a big draw, just stick it in there. We cant play pot control or anything like that. The pot is big enough to take it now ,,,shoveeeee (or bet 4k, same thing)...

[ZJ123]

[ QUOTE ]
shoveeeeeeeeeeeee. Theres 4500 in the pot and he has 5400 behind. We have a big draw, just stick it in there. We cant play pot control or anything like that. The pot is big enough to take it now ,,,shoveeeee (or bet 4k, same thing)...

[/ QUOTE ]

i said this on page 2

it is still the correct thing to do.

Sherman i get what ur saying, but your wrong.

[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
shoveeeeeeeeeeeee. Theres 4500 in the pot and he has 5400 behind. We have a big draw, just stick it in there. We cant play pot control or anything like that. The pot is big enough to take it now ,,,shoveeeee (or bet 4k, same thing)...

[/ QUOTE ]

i said this on page 2

it is still the correct thing to do.

Sherman i get what ur saying, but your wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

ZJ,
You know I respect the hell out of your posts (Adam's as well). But no one has shown me math that demonstrates I am wrong. In fact, the only math that was done in this thread was by me, and it clearly demonstrates that I cannot be wrong. Some even tried to poke holes in that math and they only furthered my point.

BTW, someone mentioned something about if this were deep stacked. If this were deepstacked, I would always c-bet. Most of my argument in this thread has to do with the fact that we are already comitted to the pot.